2008 Goobergunch Political Report

Democratic Delegate Estimate (2117 needed to nominate)

These numbers can and probably will change, due to changes in unpledged delegate decisions and the naming of the actual delegates; even the number of delegates needed to nominate may change if Florida and Michigan are seated. For harder numbers than these, see our delegate roster for the 2008 Democratic National Convention.

Clinton Edwards Obama Unallocated
Pledged 1639½ 1765½ 3
Unpledged 284½ 422 117
Total 1924 2187½ 120

Questions or comments? E-mail me: martin at goobergunch dot net.

News and Updates

Thursday, 5 June 2008

With Hillary Clinton poised to drop out of the presidential race on Saturday in favor of Barack Obama, further delegate counting is pointless; the only thing likely to be observed from this point forward is Clinton delegates switching en masse to Obama. As such, until the conventions themselves convene, we are discontinuing coverage of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. It's been a more exciting race than I ever thought I'd see, and back on 22 December 2007, when the current incarnation of the Goobergunch Political Report went live, I had no idea that the superdelegate count would become so important.

In the next several days, I'll be preparing Volume 7 of the Goobergunch Political Report, with full coverage of the Presidential, Congressional, Gubernatorial, and other interesting races around the country. Until then, thanks for reading this site!

Wednesday, 4 June 2008

Added one superdelegate for Clinton (South Dakota DNC member Cheryl Chapman) and twenty-two superdelegates for Obama (Arizona add-on Terry Goddard, California Rep. Susan Davis, Colorado Sen. Ken Salazar and Reps. John Salazar and Mark Udall, Delaware Gov. Thomas Carper, Illinois Rep. Rahm Emanuel, Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin, Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu, Maine Rep. Michael Michaud, Maryland Sen. Ben Cardin and Rep. Chris Von Hollen, New Jersey Sen. Frank Lautenberg, New Mexico Rep. Tom Udall, Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden, Pennsylvania Rep. Mike Doyle, Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen and DNC members Inez Crutchfield and Gray Sasser, Washington DNC members Ed Cote and Sharon Mast, and Wisconsin Sen. Herb Kohl and DNC member Paula Zellner). Also, switched California Sen. Barbara Boxer, Louisiana DNC member Buddy Leach, former Vice President Walter Mondale (MN), and Utah DNC member Karen Hale from Clinton to Obama.

The three remaining unallocated pledged delegates are Iowa at-large delegates nominally projected for John Edwards. As it is entirely likely that Edwards will not receive these delegates at the state convention, we prefer to keep these delegates unallocated until the convention occurs on 14 June.

Tuesday, 3 June 2008

After the polls were closed in South Dakota, added 29.5 superdelegate votes for Obama (Arizona Rep. Gabrielle Giffords and Democratic Party chair Donald Bivens, California Reps. Bob Filner and Jerry McNerney and DNC members Rachel Binah and Christine Pelosi, Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter, Florida Rep. Ron Klein and DNC member Mitch Ceaser, Kansas DNC member Helen Knetzer, Maryland Rep. John Sarbanes and DNC member Heather Mizeur, Michigan Rep. Bart Stupak, Missouri Attorney General Jay Nixon, Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, Democratic Party chair John Temporiti, and DNC member Yoland Wheat, Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer, Sens. Max Baucus and Jon Tester, and Democratic Party chair Dennis MacDonald, Nevada DNC members Sam Lieberman and Catherine Cortez Masto, New Hampshire Democratic Party chair Ray Buckley, New Jersey Rep. Rush Holt, North Carolina DNC members Muriel Offerman and David Parker, Oklahoma DNC member Jay Parmley, Oregon Secretary of State Bill Bradbury and Democratic Party vice chair Frank Dixon, and Virginia DNC member Jim Leaman). Also, Georgia DNC member Michael Thurmond, Louisiana DNC member Patsy Arceneaux, Minnesota DNC member Rick Stafford, Pennsylvania DNC member Ian Murray, and Washington DNC member Ron Sims switched from Clinton to Obama.

As of 18:00 PDT, the Goobergunch Political Report is projecting that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party.

Senator Tim Johnson of South Dakota has announced that he will cast his superdelegate vote for the winner of his state's primary. Therefore, we are retracting his vote for Obama and moving his vote to Clinton.

As of 11:00 PDT, the Associated Press is projecting that Barack Obama has clinched the Democratic nomination; their count includes 15 superdelegates that have not committed publically, as well as their minimum count of 11 pledged delegates from today's primaries. While we agree that Obama will receive at least 11 pledged delegates tonight (I predict somewhere between 15 and 18), we are hesitant to add delegates before the polls close. Furthermore, we will not be adding superdelegates before they announce — we are fairly aggressive in adding superdelegates anyway, so we'll wait for the announcements before projecting a Democratic nominee. (The number was 28 when this disclaimer was first posted.)

Polls in today's South Dakota primary will close at 19:00 MDT, and polls in today's Montana primary will close at 20:00 MDT. The projected pledged delegate allocation is as follows:

South Dakota Democrats (updated 19:22 MDT)

SD-D Clinton Obama Unallocated
At-Large Congressional District 5 4
At Large 2 2
Pledged PLEO 1 1
Total Pledged Delegates 8 7

Montana Democrats (updated 23:53 MDT)

MT-D Clinton Obama Unallocated
Western District 2 3
Eastern District 2 3
At Large 2 2
Pledged PLEO 1 1
Total Pledged Delegates 7 9

Added 1.5 superdelegate votes for Clinton (Florida DNC member Jon Ausman and Wyoming DNC member Cindy Nunley) and 16.5 superdelegate votes for Obama (California Rep. Sam Farr and DNC member John Perez, Delaware Secretary of State Harriet Windsor and Democratic Party chair John Daniello, Florida DNC member Diane Glasser, former President Jimmy Carter (GA), Kansas Rep. Dennis Moore, Massachusetts Rep. John Olver and DNC member Debra Kozikowski, Louisiana Rep. William Jefferson, Maryland DNC member Bel Leong-Hong, Detroit, MI mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, Michigan Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick and DNC members Tina Abbott, Joyce Lalonde, Mike Tardiff, and Richard Wiener, Mississippi Democratic Party Vice Chair Carnelia Fondren, Ohio House Minority Leader Joyce Beatty, Oklahoma Democratic Party Chair Ivan Holmes, and South Carolina Rep. John Spratt). Also, switched California Rep. Maxine Waters, California DNC member Kamil Hasan, Delaware DNC member Rhett Ruggerio, District of Columbia DNC member Ben Johnson, and Michigan DNC member Debbie Dingell from Clinton to Obama. Furthermore, FL-01 Edwards delegate Bill Vincent, FL-02 Edwards delegate Mary Mooney, FL-04 Edwards delegate Deborah Courtney, FL-05 Edwards delegate Fred McDowell, FL-07 Edwards delegate Joseph Beuttenmuller, FL-13 Edwards delegate Rita Ferrandino, FL-15 Edwards delegate Barry Birdwell, FL-24 Edwards delegate Gregory Shimkaveg, IA Edwards delegates Merci Wolff and David Relawsk, NH-AL Edwards delegate Sharon Nordgren, and SC-02 Edwards delegate Tim Moore have announced their support for Obama.

Monday, 2 June 2008

Added two superdelegates for Clinton (Louisiana Democratic Party Chair Chris Whittington and Tompkins County, NY, Democratic Committee Chair Irene Stein) and 6½ superdelegate votes for Obama (Connecticut Democratic Party Chair Nancy DiNardo, Florida Democratic Party Secretary Janee Murphy, Michigan Education Association President Lu Battaglieri, Southfield, MI mayor Brenda Lawrence, Missouri DNC member Maria Chappelle-Nadal, South Carolina Rep. James Clyburn, Virginia DNC member Jerome Wiley Segovia, and Washington DNC member David McDonald).

Sunday, 1 June 2008

Polls have closed in today's Puerto Rico primary. The projected pledged delegate allocation is as follows:

Puerto Rico Democrats (updated 19:23 EDT)

PR-D Clinton Obama Unallocated
San Juan 4 2
Bayamon 3 2
Arecibo 3 1
Mayagüez 3 1
Ponce 3 1
Guayama 3 1
Humacao 3 1
Carolina 3 2
At Large 8 4
Pledged PLEO 5 2
Total Pledged Delegates 38 17

Added one superdelegate for Obama (Nevada DNC member Yvonne Gates). Also, Gwethalyn Phillips has been named Unpledged Add-On for Maine; she supports Obama.

Saturday, 31 May 2008

The Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee has determined that the Florida delegation will be seated as allocated on 19 January, with each delegate (including superdelegates) receiving half a vote. The Committee has further determined that the Michigan pledged delegate allocation will be 69 for Clinton, 59 for Obama, with each Michigan delegate (including superdelegates) receiving half a vote. The total added delegates for today are as follows:

Rules and Bylaws Committee Ruling

RBC Clinton Edwards Obama Unallocated
Florida Pledged 52½ 34½
Florida Unpledged 4 2 7
Michigan Pledged 34½ 29½
Michigan Unpledged 4 8
Total Additions 95 68½ 15

There are now a total of 4233 delegate votes at the Democratic National Convention, with 2117 needed to win the nomination. Note that Harold Ickes, a Clinton strategist, has indicated the campaign's willingness to take the Michigan ruling to the Credentials Committee of the Democratic National Convention for further review.

Added one superdelegate for Clinton (former Louisiana Rep. Buddy Leach).

Thursday, 29 May 2008

Added one superdelegate for Clinton (Washington Democratic Party Vice Chair Eileen Macoll) and four superdelegates for Obama (Oregon Education Association Vice President Gail Rasmussen, Texas Democratic Party Chair Boyd Richie and DNC member Bettie Richie, and West Virginia Rep. Alan Mollohan).

Wednesday, 28 May 2008

Added three superdelegates for Obama (Colorado Democratic Party Chair Patricia Waak and Oregon Democratic Party Chair Meredith Wood Smith and DNC member Wayne Kinney).

Tuesday, 27 May 2008

Added two superdelegates for Obama (Guam DNC member Ben Pangelinan and Wyoming Democratic Party Vice Chair Nancy Drummond). Also, switched Virgin Islands DNC member Kevin Rodriquez back to Clinton from Obama.

For those that may be wondering why we estimate 4049 total delegate votes at the Democratic National Convention, instead of the more common estimate of 4050, the answer can be found in Maryland. Rep. Albert Wynn has announced his resignation effective June, and as such will not be a superdelegate to the August convention. The special election to succeed Wynn will be held on 17 June, and Obama supporter Donna Edwards is the favorite to win. However, we won't add Edwards as a superdelegate until she actually wins her election — assuming the race is still contested as of 17 June.

Sunday, 25 May 2008

The Hawaii Democratic Party have elected Brian Schatz as Chairman and Kari Luna as Vice Chair; both support Obama. Also, James Burns, an Obama supporter, has been named the state's Unpledged Add-On.

At the state convention in Alaska, Barack Obama received an additional Pledged PLEO. The pledged delegation from Alaska has been updated to Obama 10, Clinton 3. Additionally, former Governor Tony Knowles was named as the state's Unpledged Add-On; he supports Obama.

Saturday, 24 May 2008

Verna Cleveland of Georgia (Clinton), Georgia Party Secretary Stephen Leeds (Obama), and Wyoming St. Rep. W. Patrick Goggles (Obama) have been named Unpledged Add-Ons for their respective states. Also, added one superdelegate for Obama (South Carolina DNC member Waring Howe, Jr.).

Friday, 23 May 2008

Added two superdelegates for Obama (California Rep. Jim Costa and Oregon DNC member Jenny Greenleaf). Also, switched California Rep. Dennis Cardoza from Clinton to Obama.

Edwards delegates Deborah Bacon-Nelson (NH-02) and Peter Burling (NH-PLEO) have endorsed Obama. The count has been updated accordingly.

Thursday, 22 May 2008

Added one superdelegate for Clinton (Guam Democratic Party Chair Pilar Lujan).

Wednesday, 21 May 2008

Added two superdelegates for Clinton (Massachusetts add-on Martha Coakley and Ohio add-on William Craig Bashein) and two superdelegates for Obama (Connecticut Rep. Joe Courtney and Mississippi Democratic Party chair Wayne Dowdy).

Tuesday, 20 May 2008

Voting in today's Kentucky primary will close at 18:00 EDT/CDT, and voting in today's Oregon primary will close at 20:00 PDT/MDT. The projected pledged delegate allocation for these states is as follows:

Kentucky Democrats

KY-D Clinton Obama Unallocated
1st Congressional District 4 1
2nd Congressional District 4 1
3rd Congressional District 4 4
4th Congressional District 4 1
5th Congressional District 5
6th Congressional District 4 2
At Large 8 3
Pledged PLEO 4 2
Total Pledged Delegates 37 14

Oregon Democrats

OR-D Clinton Obama Unallocated
1st Congressional District 3 4
2nd Congressional District 2 3
3rd Congressional District 3 6
4th Congressional District 3 4
5th Congressional District 3 3
At Large 5 7
Pledged PLEO 2 4
Total Pledged Delegates 21 31

Added one superdelegate for Obama (Guam Del. Madeleine Bordallo).

Monday, 19 May 2008

Added six superdelegates for Obama (Alaska DNC members Blake Johnson and Cindy Spanyers, Iowa Democratic Party Chair Scott Brennan, Kansas Democratic Party Chair Larry Gates, Washington Democratic Party Chair Dwight Pelz, and West Virginia Sen. Robert Byrd).

Sunday, 18 May 2008

California named its five Unpledged Add-Ons today; Carolyn Doggett, Dario Frommer, and Dorio Rubio support Clinton, while William Quay Hays and Lou Paulson support Obama.

Saturday, 17 May 2008

Delegate Jack Evans (DC-AL), pledged to Hillary Clinton, has announced his support for Barack Obama. The delegate count has been updated accordingly.

Barack Obama gained a delegate from Hillary Clinton at the Nevada state Democratic convention today; the state now has 14 delegates pledged to Obama and 11 pledged to Clinton. Rusty McAllister of the International Associate of Firefighters has been named Unpledged Add-On for Nevada; he is uncommitted.

Lt. Gov. Mark Parkinson has been named Unpledged Add-On for Kansas, and former Denver mayor Federico Peña has been named Unpledged Add-On for Colorado. They both support Obama.

An additional South Carolina Edwards delegate has been added for Obama. Only Tim Moore (SC-02) remains committed to Edwards. Additionally, Iowa Edwards delegate Arlene Prather-O'Kane has endorsed Obama, as have Florida Edwards delegates E. Alan Brock and Linda Spisak.

Added one superdelegate for Obama (Maryland DNC member Greg Pecoraro). Also, added two Michigan superdelegates for Obama (Oakland County Commissioner Eric Coleman and DNC member Virgie Rollins).

Friday, 16 May 2008

Added one superdelegate for Clinton (California DNC member Keith Umemoto) and one superdelegate for Obama (California Rep. Pete Stark).

Edwards delegate Machelle Crum (IA-03) has announced her support for Barack Obama.

Thurday, 15 May 2008

Added four superdelegates for Obama (California Reps. Howard Berman and Jim Waxman, District of Columbia DNC member Larry Cohen, and Washington Rep. Jim McDermott).

Edwards delegate John Denton (NH-01) has announced his support for Barack Obama, as have six of the eight South Carolina Edwards delegates.

Wednesday, 14 May 2008

John Edwards has endorsed Barack Obama. We will be carefully monitoring his 16 delegates for announcements regarding their support at the convention.

Added 1 superdelegate for Clinton (Tennessee add-on Vicki Harwell) and 3.5 superdelegates for Obama (Democrats Abroad Chair Christine Schon Marques, Indiana Rep. Pete Visclosky, Oklahoma President Pro Tem. Mike Morgan, and Wisconsin State Senator Lena Taylor). Also, noted the support of Wayne County, MI executive Bob Ficano for Obama.

Tuesday, 13 May 2008

We are now projecting a win for Travis Childers (D) in Mississippi's 1st Congressional District; he will be the first Democrat to hold the seat since 1994. This brings the total number of superdelegates to 796. To our knowledge, Childers is uncommitted in the presidential race.

Voting in today's West Virginia primary will close at 19:30 EDT. This primary allocates 28 pledged delegates, as follows:

West Virginia (updated 0:31 EDT)

WV-D Clinton Obama Unallocated
1st Congressional District 4 2
2nd Congressional District 4 2
3rd Congressional District 5 1
At Large 5 2
Pledged PLEO 2 1
Total Pledged Delegates 20 8

Added five superdelegates for Obama (former DNC Chair Roy Romer (CO), District of Columbia Democratic Party chair Anita Bonds, Indiana Rep. Joe Donnelly, Louisiana add-on Ray Nagin, and Wisconsin DNC member Awais Khaleel). Also, noted the support of Michigan DNC member Lauren Wolfe for Obama.

According to the Washington Post, At-Large pledged delegate Jack Johnson of Maryland has switched from Clinton to Obama. The pledged delegate count has been updated accordingly. On the delegate roster page, Johnson's support has been flagged in italics, similar to that of an unpledged delegate.

Monday, 12 May 2008

Added four superdelegates for Obama (Hawaii Sen. Daniel Akaka and DNC member Dolly Strazar, Idaho Democratic Party Chair R. Keith Roark, and Maine Rep. Tom Allen).

Sunday, 11 May 2008

Added one superdelegate for Obama (Young Democrats Board Member Crystal Strait (CA)).

The other Unpledged Add-Ons named yesterday were Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley and William Craig Bashein of Ohio. They appear to be uncommitted.

Saturday, 10 May 2008

Added two superdelegates for Obama (Arizona Rep. Harry Mitchell and Virgin Islands DNC member Carole Burke). Also, switched Virgin Islands DNC member Kevin Rodriquez from Clinton to Obama.

Arthur Powell (Clinton) of Massachusetts, Dave Regan (Obama) of Ohio and Kristi Cumming (Obama) of Utah have been named Unpledged Add-Ons for their respective states. Another Add-On in Massachusetts and Ohio should be announced later today.

Friday, 9 May 2008

Added two superdelegates for Clinton (Pennsylvania Rep. Chris Carney and Texas Rep. Ciro Rodriguez) and seven superdelegates for Obama (California DNC members Ed Espinoza and Vernon Watkins, Hawaii Rep. Mazie Hirono, AFGE President John Gage (MD), New Mexico add-on Laurie Weakhee, South Carolina Democratic Party Vice Chair Wilbur Lee Jeffcoat, and Virginia DNC member Joe Johnson).

As a note, I generally don't go back and update the state breakdowns after a day or two after the election, even after allocations get changed. However, state allocations are constantly amended to reflect the latest results. The delegate roster page contains reasonably solid allocations for each state when delegate lists get confirmed by state parties.

Thursday, 8 May 2008

Added three superdelegates for Obama (North Carolina Rep. Brad Miller, Oregon Rep. Peter DeFazio, and Washington Rep. Rick Larsen). Also, switched New Jersey Rep. Donald Payne from Clinton to Obama.

Wednesday, 7 May 2008

Added one superdelegate for Clinton (Indiana Rep. Brad Ellsworth) and two superdelegates for Obama (California DNC member Inola Henry and North Carolina Democratic Party chair Jerry Meek). Also, switched Virginia DNC member Jennifer McClellan from Clinton to Obama and noted the support of Florida unpledged add-on Dan Gelber for Obama.

Tuesday, 6 May 2008

Added one superdelegate for Obama (Cumberland County, NC commissioner Jeanette Council). Also, NC-11 Rep. Heath Shuler has announced that he will cast his superdelegate vote for the winner of his congressional district; this appears to be Hillary Clinton.

Voting in today's Indiana primary will close at 18:00 CDT/EDT, and voting in today's North Carolina primary will close at 19:30 EDT. The projected pledged delegate allocation for these states is as follows:

Indiana Democrats

IN-D Clinton Obama Unallocated
1st Congressional District 3 3
2nd Congressional District 3 3
3rd Congressional District 2 2
4th Congressional District 2 2
5th Congressional District 2 2
6th Congressional District 3 2
7th Congressional District 2 4
8th Congressional District 4 2
9th Congressional District 4 2
At Large 8 8
Pledged PLEO 5 4
Total Pledged Delegates 38 34

North Carolina Democrats

NC-D Clinton Obama Unallocated
1st Congressional District 2 4
2nd Congressional District 2 4
3rd Congressional District 2 2
4th Congressional District 3 6
5th Congressional District 3 2
6th Congressional District 3 2
7th Congressional District 3 3
8th Congressional District 2 3
9th Congressional District 3 3
10th Congressional District 3 2
11th Congressional District 3 3
12th Congressional District 1 6
13th Congressional District 2 5
At Large 11 15
Pledged PLEO 5 7
Total Pledged Delegates 48 67

Monday, 5 May 2008

Chicago Mayor Richard Daley, Cook County Board President Todd Stroger, and state Representative Barbara Flynn Currie have been named Unpledged Add-Ons for Illinois. All support Barack Obama.

On Saturday, Democrat Don Cazayoux won a special election in LA-6, becoming the newest Unpledged PLEO to the national convention and the newest Democrat in Congress. He is currently uncommitted.

Added one-half superdelegate vote for Clinton (Democrats Abroad DNC member Theresa Morelli) and three superdelegates for Obama (Maryland Democratic Party chair Michael Cryor and vice chair Lauren Glover and Oklahoma DNC member Kayln Free).

Saturday, 3 May 2008

New Orleans, LA mayor Ray Nagin (uncommitted), former Maryland Governor Parris N. Glendening (Obama), former Maryland Lieutenant Governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (Clinton), and former South Carolina Education Superintendent Inez Tenenbaum (Obama) have been named Unpledged Add-Ons in their respective states.

It appears that in today's Guam caucuses, 4 pledged delegates for Clinton and 4 pledged delegates for Obama, each of which get ½ vote, have been selected. Additionally, Pilar Lujan (uncommitted) has been elected Guam Democratic Party chair and Jaime Paulino (Obama) has been elected vice chair; they are now both superdelegates.

Added two superdelegates for Clinton (Connecticut AFL-CIO chair John Olsen and Texas DNC member Jaime A. Gonzalez, Jr.) and two superdelegates for Obama (New Mexico Democratic Party Chair Brian S. Colón and Texas DNC member John Patrick). Also, switched former DNC chair Joe Andrew (IN) from Clinton to Obama.

New York named Assemblywoman Carmen Arroyo, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, and former Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields as Unpledged Add-Ons on Thursday. All of them support Hillary Clinton.

Wednesday, 30 April 2008

Added seven superdelegates for Clinton (Iowa Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal and DNC member Sandy Opstvedt, Missouri Rep. Ike Skelton, New York DNC member Herman Farrell, North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley, Pennsylvania AFL-CIO President Bill George, and Puerto Rico Democratic Party vice chair Luisette Cabanas) and seven superdelegates for Obama (California Rep. Lois Capps, Indiana Rep. Baron Hill, Iowa Rep. Bruce Braley and DNC member Richard Machacek, Kentucky Rep. Ben Chandler, former DNC chair Paul Kirk (MA), New Mexico Sen. Jeff Bingaman).

Laurie Weahkee, lead organizer for the Native American Voters Alliance, has been named Unpledged Add-On in New Mexico. She is currently uncommitted.

Saturday, 26 April 2008

Arizona Attorney General Terry Goddard (uncommitted) and former New Hampshire Democratic Committee head Kathy Sullivan (Clinton) have been named Unpledged Add-Ons in their respective states. The delegate tally has been updated accordingly.

Results from the Iowa District Caucuses are now available. We now project that Obama will win 24 pledged delegates in Iowa and Clinton will receive 14 pledged delegates, with 7 delegates pledged to John Edwards.

Added one superdelegate for Clinton (Tennesse Rep. John Tannner) and five superdelegates for Obama (new Arizona Democratic Party vice chair Charlene Fernandez, Nebraska DNC member Audra Ostergard, Oklahoma Gov. Brad Henry, Oregon Rep. David Wu, and Pennsylvania Rep. Robert Brady).

Tuesday, 22 April 2008

Voting in today's Pennsylvania primary will close at 20:00 EDT. The pledged delegate allocation for Pennsylvania is as follows:

Pennsylvania Democrats

PA-D Clinton Obama Unallocated
1st Congressional District 2 5
2nd Congressional District 2 7
3rd Congressional District 3 2
4th Congressional District 3 2
5th Congressional District 2 2
6th Congressional District 3 3
7th Congressional District 4 3
8th Congressional District 4 3
9th Congressional District 2 1
10th Congressional District 3 1
11th Congressional District 4 1
12th Congressional District 4 1
13th Congressional District 4 3
14th Congressional District 3 4
15th Congressional District 3 2
16th Congressional District 2 2
17th Congressional District 2 2
18th Congressional District 3 2
19th Congressional District 2 2
At Large 19 16
Pledged PLEO 11 9
Total Pledged Delegates 85 74

Added one superdelegate for Obama (Ohio DNC member Enid Goubeaux).

Sunday, 20 April 2008

Today, Michigan selects district-level delegates to the national convention, meaning we can estimate how many "uncommitted" delegates can be allocated to Obama. Bear in mind that the seating of the Michigan delegation remains dubious.

Michigan District-Level Delegates

MI-Dd Clinton Obama Uncommitted Unallocated
1st Congressional District 3 2
2nd Congressional District 3 2
3rd Congressional District 3 2
4th Congressional District 3 2
5th Congressional District 4 2
6th Congressional District 3 2
7th Congressional District 3 2
8th Congressional District 4 2
9th Congressional District 3 2 1
10th Congressional District 3 2
11th Congressional District 3 2
12nd Congressional District 3 3
13th Congressional District 3 3
14th Congressional District 3 4
15th Congressional District 3 3
District Delegate Allocation 47 31 1 4


Added three superdelegates for Clinton (California DNC member Aleita Huguenin and Ohio Reps. Tim Ryan and Betty Sutton) and five superdelegates for Obama (Indiana Rep. Andre Carson, Maryland DNC member Janice Griffin, Nebraska Democratic Party chair Steve Achelpohl, and North Carolina Reps. David Price and Mel Watt). Also, added two unpledged add-ons for Clinton (Brendan Byrne and Jim Florio of New Jersey) and two unpledged add-ons for Obama (Harry Thomas, Jr., of the District of Columbia and Reggie Whitten of Oklahoma).

Sunday, 13 April 2008

Added one superdelegate for Obama (Minnesota DNC member Nancy Larson).

Saturday, 12 April 2008

Added four superdelegates for Clinton (new California Rep. Jackie Speier, Guam DNC member Taling Taitano, Ohio DNC member Bill Burga, and Pennsylvania DNC member Sophie Masloff) and one superdelegate for Obama (Utah DNC member Wayne Holland, Jr.). Also, withdrew the support of California DNC member Alice Hugenin and District of Columbia Add-On Harry Thomas, Jr. for Hillary Clinton.

Monday, 7 April 2008

Added two superdelegates for Obama (Montana DNC members Margaret Campbell and Jeanne Lemire Dahlman). Furthermore, added two unpledged add-on for Clinton (Mark Wilcox of Arkansas and Harry Thomas, Jr. of the District of Columbia) and four unpledged add-ons for Obama (Rob Carver of Delaware, Yvette Alexander of the District of Columbia, Susan Montee of Missouri, and Dan Hannaher of North Dakota) for Obama. Also, removed Utah DNC member Helen Langan's support for Clinton.

Thursday, 3 April 2008

Apologies for the delay in updating; I was extremely busy with personal business. More regular updates should resume henceforth.

The District of Columbia named Yvetta Alexander and Harry Thomas, Jr. as its two Unpledged Add-Ons. We'll see who they support.

Based on results from Texas County Conventions, it appears that Clinton will receive 19 at-large delegates and 11 pledged PLEOs from Texas, while Obama will receive 23 at-large delegates and 14 pledged PLEOs. While this is subject to change, this brings the Texas pledged delegate count to Obama 98, Clinton 95.

Added eight superdelegates for Obama (California DNC member Steven Alari, Connecticut Unpledged Add-On Don Williams, Illinois Rep. Dan Lipinski, Minnesota Rep. Amy Klobuchar, Montana DNC member John Melcher, Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey, Texas DNC member Al Edwards, and Wyoming Gov. Dave Freudenthal). Also, moved former DNC Chair Paul Kirk of Massachusetts from Obama to Uncommitted and removed Maryland Rep. Albert Wynn (an Obama endorser) due to his resignation from Congress.

Wednesday, 19 March 2008

Added one superdelegate for Clinton (Pennsylvania Rep. John Murtha) and one superdelegate for Obama (Illinois DNC member Margie Gavin Woods).

Sunday, 16 March 2008

Based on updated results from yesterday's county caucuses, the total pledged delegate count from Iowa has been revised. We are now projecting that Obama will win 25 pledged delegates from Iowa and Clinton will win 14 pledged delegates, with 6 pledged delegates still unallocated (as they still support Edwards).

Added one superdelegate for Obama (Wisconsin DNC member Melissa Schroeder).

Saturday, 15 March 2008

Based on results from today's Iowa county caucuses, Obama has gained 7 delegates and Clinton has gained 1.

Thursday, 13 March 2008

Added one superdelegate for Clinton (Virgin Islands DNC member Kevin Rodriquez) and removed Texas DNC member David Hardt's support for Clinton.

Tweaked pledged delegate allocations in Colorado (Obama 35, Clinton 20) and Illinois (Obama 106, Clinton 47) based on updated information.

Wednesday, 12 March 2008

Governor Eliot Spitzer (D-NY) has resigned today. As his replacement, David Patterson, is also an at-large member of the Democratic National Committee (and as such, like Spitzer, already a superdelegate supporting Hillary Clinton), the total number of delegates is reduced by one.

Tuesday, 11 March 2008

Andre Carson (D) has defeated Jon Elrod (R) in the special election held today in the 7th Congressional District of Indiana. Therefore, he is now a superdelegate (at this time, "Unallocated").

Voting in today's Mississippi primary will close at 19:00 CDT. This primary allocates 33 pledged delegates, as follows:

Mississippi

MS-D Clinton Obama Unallocated
1st Congressional District 3 2
2nd Congressional District 2 5
3rd Congressional District 2 3
4th Congressional District 2 3
At Large 3 4
Pledged PLEO 1 3
Total Pledged Delegates 13 20

The Associated Press is reporting that Texas caucus results will be unavailable until 29 March. As national delegates from caucuses are likely to change from original estimates anyway, I will not be posting a delegate projection for these caucuses prior to that date.

Added district-level delegates and superdelegates from Maryland and Rhode Island.

Monday, 10 March 2008

Added two superdelegates (California DNC member Aleita Huguenin and Ohio DNC member Patricia Moss) for Hillary Clinton and five superdelegates (California Democratic Party vice chair Alexandra Gallardo-Rooker, Illinois Rep.-Elect Bill Foster, Maryland DNC member Mary Jo Neville, Mississippi DNC member Everett Sanders, and North Carolina DNC member Joyce Brayboy) for Barack Obama.

Updates from 8 March 2008 and 22 December 2007, including coverage of the Republican nomination for president (now clinched by John McCain) and the Democratic nomination for president through the March 4th primaries, can be found here. As of 8 March 2008, our current estimate for the Democratic Party delegate count is: Barack Obama 1553½, Hillary Clinton 1454½, with 1027 delegates to be allocated and 12 delegates still allocated to John Edwards. Note that our delegate count is only a best estimate of the first ballot at the Democratic National Convention in August; in all likelihood, the delegate count can and will change prior to the convention. To see the delegates that have actually been selected, see the Roll of the Democratic National Convention that we are compiling; it currently contains complete delegations from Alabama, American Samoa, Oklahoma, and the Virgin Islands, as well as partial delegations from the District of Columbia, Florida, and Louisiana.

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