Goobergunch Political Report

7 September 2010

Senate Race Ratings

Goobergunch @ 01:33 CT
Posted in: Dynamic Race Ratings, Election 2010
Tags:

Well, it’s Labor Day and as such time for the launch of the Senate 2010 edition of the GPR Dynamic Race Ratings. Unsurprisingly, it’s not good for Democrats. In the graphic below, races are categorized in rough order of competitiveness. The white line indicates what I believe to be the most likely scenario at the end of Election Night, while the light blue and red lines surround races that really could go either way. Meanwhile, the races outside the dark red and blue lines are safe bets for the Republican and Democratic Parties, respectively.

GPR Dynamic Race Ratings - Senate Election, 2010

Analysis below the fold….

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26 December 2009

Downtime, and a look at the Second Session

Well, that planned amendment postings got somewhat ruined with the downtime we had recently. While I guess I could put it together now, it’s really kind of pointless given that the full text of the bill, as passed by the Senate, has been printed. Hopefully the new Congressional session will be a bit more productive.

With both the House and Senate adjourned sine die (a nice Latin way to say that the first session is officially concluded), the next item of business is for both Houses to reconvene on Tuesday, 5 January, for what look to be mostly pro forma sessions. After that, the House remains out of session until Tuesday, 12 January; the Senate won’t be back until Monday, 18 January. Obviously, a high priority will be melding the House and Senate bills—while a formal conference may be obstructed by Republican procedural objections (forcing a conference would eat about six days), informal negotiations may be able to bypass the official process while providing roughly the same result (in the form of amendments to the other body’s amendments and such). But what else is on the Congressional agenda?

In the Senate, we’ve got the first hint of an official schedule, at least for Wednesday, 20 January:

After a period of morning business, the Senate will proceed to consideration of Ex. Cal. 421, the nomination of Beverly Martin for the 11th Circuit Court, with 60 minutes of debate evenly divided and controlled by Sens. Leahy and Sessions immediately followed by a vote on the nomination.

At a time to be determined by the Leaders, the Senate will proceed to H.J. Res. 45, the Debt Limit (Increase) resolution. After Reid offers a substitute, which will only change the amount by which the debt limit is increased, the following amendments are in order:

  • Thune (TARP)
  • Murkowski (endangerment EPA regs)
  • Coburn (rescissions package)
  • Sessions (spending caps)
  • McConnell (relevant to any on the list)
  • Reid (relevant to any on the list)
  • Reid (pay-go)
  • Baucus x3 (relevant to any on the list)
  • Conrad/Gregg (fiscal task force)

All of these are subject to a 60–vote threshold for adoption, as will be the final passage vote, which will happen right after all of the amendments get dealt with.

As for the House, there’s nothing concrete about their early schedule yet. There are, of course, plenty of rumors about upcoming immigration and jobs bills floating around, but they haven’t actually materialized yet. Given that the Senate still has a huge backlog of House bills that they could be working on—climate change comes to mind—we’ll just have to wait and see.

3 December 2009

Healthcare in the Senate, Day 5

Goobergunch @ 22:23 CT
Posted in: Providing for the General Welfare
Tags:

So today the Senate adopted the Mikulski Amendment #2791 and rejected both the Murkowski Amendment #2836 and the McCain Motion to Commit on mostly party lines. The Bennet (CO) Amendment #2826, meanwhile, passed unanimously.

The fun continues tomorrow with consideration of:

  • Whitehouse Amendment #2870 (Sense of the Senate—Fiscal Responsibility)
  • Hatch Motion to Commit (Medicare Advantage)

Votes aren’t scheduled on these yet, but they could occur at any time after 11:30 EST.

The text of the Whitehouse Amendment is under the fold. As you can see, it’s not overly substantive. While I don’t have the text of the Hatch motion yet, I expect it would kill the bill if passed similar to the McCain motion mentioned yesterday. I’ve also updated the main bill text page to reflect the amendments that were made today. I think it’s useful to have a continuously–updated page reflecting the current text of the bill, not just the original text that’s on most sites.

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2 December 2009

Healthcare in the Senate, Day 4

Goobergunch @ 19:10 CT
Posted in: Providing for the General Welfare
Tags:

As the health care bill works its slow way through the Senate, it’s somewhat sobering to note that the very first substantive votes there will finally occur tomorrow. We’re getting votes on:

  • Mikulski Amdt. #2791 (Women’s Medical Care) as amended,
  • Murkowski Amdt. #2836 (Women’s Medical Care),
  • Bennet (CO) Amdt. #2826 (Medicare), and
  • McCain Motion to Commit (Medicare).

All of these require 60 votes to be adopted. The first two will be voted on at 11:45 EST, and the last two will be voted on at 14:45 EST.

Of course, the next question is what these amendments actually do. Sen. Blanche Lincoln has posted the text of various amendments on her website. If it weren’t for this, we wouldn’t know the full text of the Murkowski and Bennet amendments until the Congressional Record comes out early tomorrow morning.

(As for the McCain motion, it sends the bill back to committee with various instructions to make changes to it. It can be read here (PDF), but its language is really unimportant—sending the bill back to committee would probably just kill it for good.)

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