Goobergunch Political Report

10 March 2012

The 2012 Wyoming County Conventions

Goobergunch @ 16:30 PT
Posted in: Election 2012, GPR Live
Tags:

12 Wyoming delegates are elected directly at county conventions that wrap up this weekend. The following counties are selecting delegates this year:

WY-R Paul Romney Santorum Unallocated
Big Horn Co. 1
Carbon Co. 1
Johnson Co. 1
Laramie Co. 1
Lincoln Co. 1
Natrona Co. 1
Niobrara Co. 1
Park Co. 1
Platte Co. 1
Sublette Co. 1
Washakie Co. 1
Weston Co. 1
Total 1 7 3 1
Last updated 17:45 Mountain Standard Time

The remaining counties are selecting alternates this year and will select delegates in 2012. Also, 14 more delegates will be selected at the state convention in mid-April.

UPDATE [16:56 MST]: Fun!

PLEASE NOTE: PARK COUNTY RESULTS ARE NOW IN CONTESTED MODE AND ARE NOT CONSIDERED FINAL, BUT PENDING.

That’s a Santorum delegate at the moment; the caucus vote in Park County was reported as Santorum 29-27 Romney.

Also, note that the delegate from Niobrara County (as I mentioned in an earlier post) is officially “uncommitted”. We’re just waiting on Lincoln and Sublette Counties right now, as well as the Park County contest result.

The 2012 Kansas Caucuses

Goobergunch @ 14:30 PT
Posted in: Election 2012, GPR Live
Tags:

With results already well in, here’s the current tally on today’s Kansas caucuses, which are winner-take-all in each district and proportional at-large, with the 3 RNC members bound to the statewide winner:

KS-R Gingrich Paul Romney Santorum Unallocated
CD 1 3
CD 2 3
CD 3 3
CD 4 3
At Large 7 18
RNC 3
Total 7 33
Last updated 16:16 Central Standard Time

UPDATE [15:26 CST]: Apparently CNN has a funny definition of 99%. If you’re wondering why the Gingrich and Paul delegates disappeared, it’s because there was a major shift in the vote even though 99% of precincts were allegedly reporting. Romney went from 17% to 21% statewide, which activates a 20% threshold—which Gingrich and Paul aren’t over.

Romney Wins the Northern Marianas

Goobergunch @ 13:22 PT
Posted in: Election 2012
Tags:

In more unbound territorial delegate news:

SAIPAN, Northern Mariana Islands — Another victory for presidential hopeful Mitt Romney. He’s won the Republican caucus in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, picking up nine delegates from the U.S. territory.

Like in Guam, that includes the 3 RNC delegates.

9 March 2012

A Further Detail

Goobergunch @ 23:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012
Tags:

So for the last several months, I’ve divided Republican delegates into “Selected” delegates, those selected by Republican primaries, caucuses, or conventions, and “Automatic” delegates, those who get to go to the national convention because they’re members of the Republican National Committee. That’s a bit of a simplification, but most modern nomination races have been decided before the details have really become notable. However, since this year’s race still hasn’t quite been resolved after Super Tuesday, I’m further subdividing the “Selected” delegates into two groups: “Bound” and “Unbound” delegates. The distinction is simple: “Bound” delegates are bound, by state law or party rule, to vote for the candidate that they are pledged to on the first ballot at the convention unless released. While an “Unbound” delegate may be pledged to or otherwise announced their support for a given candidate, they can vote for whoever they want at the convention.

The separation between “Bound” and “Unbound” delegates is a good deal fuzzier than that between those two categories and “Automatic” delegates. For instance, any delegate selected through a normally binding process as “Uncommitted” (such as the Niobrara County, WY delegate) will become an “Unbound” delegate. Also, any delegates released by their candidate become “Unbound” if they were previously bound to him. (And yes, this includes Huntsman’s 2 delegates in New Hampshire—although to the best of my knowledge, Huntsman has yet to release his delegates.)

Of the states that have voted so far, the 103 delegates from Guam, Ohio, North Dakota, and Wyoming are officially unbound. (North Dakota is a somewhat odd case, as that allocation appears to be based on an informal agreement of the 28 delegates—including the 3 RNC member—to vote according to the popular vote. Since this agreement makes the individual endorsements of North Dakota’s RNC members moot, I’m throwing all 28 delegates into the “Unbound” column. I don’t expect to move any other “Automatic” delegates to “Unbound”.) A number of caucus states that have, I suppose, “voted” also will select unbound delegates later, but I haven’t counted any delegates from them yet. In total, there are 448 (20%) “Unbound” delegates at this time, compared to 1715 (75%) “Bound” delegates and 123 (5%) “Automatic” delegates.

In short, the big table is going from:

Gingrich Huntsman Paul Romney Santorum Unallocated
Selected 109 2 30 353 106 1560
Automatic 3 1 26 2 94
Total 112 2 31 379 108 1654

to

Gingrich Huntsman Paul Romney Santorum Unallocated
Bound 107 2 21 298 74 1213
Unbound 2 9 55 32 350
Automatic 3 1 26 2 91
Total 112 2 31 379 108 1654

Romney Wins Guam

Goobergunch @ 21:05 PT
Posted in: Election 2012
Tags:

Speaking of delegates that are officially uncommitted but can be assigned to a specific candidate:

Romney picked up all nine delegates from Guam. Republicans on the tiny Pacific island met Saturday at their state convention and backed the former Massachusetts governor in a unanimous show of hands.

Those Guam delegates presumably include both the 6 delegates selected at the state convention and the 3 RNC member delegates.

Finalizing Super Tuesday

Goobergunch @ 20:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012
Tags:

The Republican National Committee has updated its delegate count with the latest numbers from state parties. They’re mostly the same as my numbers from Election Night, but there are a couple of small adjustments:

  • Georgia: Gingrich 52 (-2), Romney 21 (+2), Santorum 3.
  • Ohio: Romney 38, Santorum 21 (-1), “Unallocated” 4 (+1).
  • Tennessee: Santorum 29 (-1), Romney 16 (+2), Gingrich 10 (+2).

These numbers might get further tweaked a little later if the vote counts shift, and of course I’ll have that update if necessary.

In Wyoming news, the delegate from Niobrara County will apparently be officially “Uncommitted”, which keeps them in my “Unallocated” column for now. That being said, I’ve decided that it’s finally time to break down which delegates are formally pledged and which are not. Expect a post on that a bit later.

7 March 2012

Super Tuesday Aftermath

Goobergunch @ 18:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012
Tags:

Well, another Super Tuesday is in the books. Really, nothing particularly unexpected happened. Here’s the rundown:

Gingrich Paul Romney Santorum
AK 3 6 8 7
GA 54 19 3
ID 32
MA 38
ND 2 8 7 11
OH 38 22
OK 13 13 14
TN 8 14 30
VA 3 43
VT 4 9 4
WY 1 4
Total 80 22 225 91

There are still three Tennessee delegates that are “too close to call” because there’s no readily-accessible source for Congressional-district level data, and my estimates (based on the county-level data) didn’t show a large enough lead for a given candidate to confidently project the first or second place finish. The three missing Ohio delegates are, as previously mentioned, stripped from Santorum because he didn’t file a full delegate slate.

So what’s next? Romney’s in pretty good shape, having taken 53% of the night’s delegates, and it’s hard to see either Santorum or Gingrich getting to 1144 delegates. But it’s not entirely clear that Romney can get to 1144 before the convention, and the next few weeks aren’t going to help him too much, especially in the media. (The upcoming contests in Alabama, Hawaii, Kansas, and Mississippi allocate delegates proportionally, so his delegate count won’t get dinged too much.) Time for more number-crunching!

6 March 2012

Romney Delegate No. … 334?

Goobergunch @ 22:58 PT
Posted in: Meta

A Romney press release indicated that Montana Republican National Committeeman Errol Galt has endorsed Mitt Romney. Now back to Super Tuesday results.

Super Tuesday 2012

Goobergunch @ 17:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012, GPR Live
Tags:

Ah, Super Tuesday. The biggest Presidential primary night of the year, with 10 states voting and 424 delegates (that’s 18.5%) at stake. Here’s what’s on the schedule for tonight:

Georgia (polls close 19:00 EST) will select 76 delegates. 31 at large delegates will be allocated proportionally with a 20% threshold, and the 3 RNC members will be pledged to the statewide winner. Each Congressional district has 3 delegates, which are allocated 2-1 to the winner and runner-up, respectively, unless a candidate receives 50%, in which case they receive all 3 delegates. The tally:

GA-R Gingrich Romney Santorum Unallocated
CD 1 2 1
CD 2 2 1
CD 3 3
CD 4 2 1
CD 5 1 2
CD 6 1 2
CD 7 2 1
CD 8 2 1
CD 9 3
CD 10 3
CD 11 2 1
CD 12 2 1
CD 13 3
CD 14 3
RNC 3
At Large 20 11
Total 54 19 3
Last updated 18:15 Eastern Standard Time

Vermont (polls close 19:00 EST) will select 17 delegates. The winner of the state gets the 3 “Congressional district” delegates and the remaining 14 delegates are allocated proportionally with a 20% threshold, unless somebody gets 50% in which case they get all of the state’s delegates. The tally:

VT-R Paul Romney Santorum Unallocated
CD 1 3
At Large 4 6 4
Total 4 9 4
Last updated 1:09 Eastern Standard Time

Virginia (polls close 19:00 EST) will select 46 delegates. 13 at large delegates will be allocated proportionally with a 15% threshold, unless somebody gets 50%—in which case he gets all 13 delegates.. Each Congressional district has 3 delegates, which are all allocated to the winner of the Congressional district. Santorum and Gingrich failed to qualify for the Virginia ballot, so only Romney and Paul are even competing for Virginia’s delegates. The tally:

VA-R Paul Romney Unallocated
CD 1 3
CD 2 3
CD 3 3
CD 4 3
CD 5 3
CD 6 3
CD 7 3
CD 8 3
CD 9 3
CD 10 3
CD 11 3
At Large 13
Total 3 43
Last updated 20:35 Eastern Standard Time

Ohio (polls close 19:30 EST) will select 63 delegates. Unlike the other primary states we’ve seen so far, Ohio’s delegates will not be formally pledged on the first ballot. 15 at large delegates will be allocated proportionally with a 20% threshold. Each Congressional district has 3 delegates, which should be allocated to the winner of the Congressional district. However, the Santorum campaign failed to file any delegates in the 6th, 9th, and 13th Districts, filed only 1 delegate in the 3rd, 8th, and 12th Districts, and filed only two delegates in the 4th, 10th, and 16th Districts. If Santorum wins any of those districts, the delegates that Santorum failed to name will remain unallocated tonight. The Santorum (or any other) campaign can file a petition with the Ohio Republican Party to claim those delegates later, but I’ll count those delegates only after that happens. So the tally:

OH-R Gingrich Romney Santorum Unallocated
CD 1 3
CD 2 3
CD 3 1 2
CD 4 2 1
CD 5 3
CD 6 3
CD 7 3
CD 8 3
CD 9 3
CD 10 3
CD 11 3
CD 12 3
CD 13 3
CD 14 3
CD 15 3
CD 16 3
At Large 8 7
Total 38 22 3
Last updated 1:06 Eastern Standard Time

Massachusetts (polls close 20:00 EST) will select 38 delegates based on the proportional statewide vote, with a 15% threshold. The tally:

MA-R Gingrich Paul Romney Santorum Unallocated
Total 38
Last updated 22:54 Eastern Standard Time

Oklahoma (polls close 19:00 CST) will select 40 delegates. 25 at large delegates will be allocated proportionally with a 15% threshold unless one candidate gets 50%, in which case he gets all 25 delegates. Each Congressional district has 3 delegates, which are either allocated 2-1 to the winner and runner-up, respectively, or 1-1-1 among the top three candidates (if three candidates break 15%), unless a candidate receives 50%, in which case they receive all 3 delegates. The tally:

OK-R Gingrich Romney Santorum Unallocated
CD 1 1 1 1
CD 2 1 1 1
CD 3 1 1 1
CD 4 1 1 1
CD 5 1 1 1
At Large 8 8 10
Total 13 13 14
Last updated 22:23 Central Standard Time

Tennessee (polls close 20:00 EST) will select 55 delegates. 28 at large delegates will be allocated proportionally with a 20% threshold. Each Congressional district has 3 delegates, which will (under most circumstances) be allocated 2-1 to the winner and runner-up, respectively. (There’s a 20% threshold that applies and a couple of unlikely exceptions.) The tally:

TN-R Gingrich Romney Santorum Unallocated
CD 1 2 1
CD 2 1 2
CD 3 1 2
CD 4 1 2
CD 5 1 2
CD 6 2 1
CD 7 1 2
CD 8 2 1
CD 9 1 2
At Large 7 9 12
Total 8 14 30 3
Last updated 18:40 Eastern Standard Time

Idaho‘s 32 delegates are bound by tonight’s caucus results in a particularly confusing way based on the results of a multi-round secret ballot in each county caucus. You can read the full details here, but here’s what tonight’s allocation looks like:

ID-R Gingrich Paul Romney Santorum Unallocated
Total 32
Last updated 21:16 Mountain Standard Time

While formally unbound, North Dakota‘s 28 delegates are to be selected “so that they best reflect the presidential preference of the Caucus participants.” That should be roughly proportional, as follows:

ND-R Gingrich Paul Romney Santorum Unallocated
Total 2 8 7 11
Last updated 23:55 Central Standard Time

Alaska will select 24 delegates proportionally based on the results of a presidential preference vote at tonight’s caucuses, as follows:

AK-R Gingrich Paul Romney Santorum Unallocated
Total 3 6 8 7
Last updated 9:29 Alaska Standard Time

And just in case that wasn’t enough Super Tuesday fun, 5 Wyoming delegates will be allocated today. I’ll have a post on Wyoming delegate allocation later in the week, but just for keeping count tonight:

WY-R Gingrich Paul Romney Santorum Unallocated
Big Horn Co. 1
Laramie Co. 1
Natrona Co. 1
Washakie Co. 1
Weston Co. 1
Last updated 21:48 Mountain Standard Time

4 March 2012

Santorum Delegate No. 19

Goobergunch @ 03:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012
Tags:

From a long Associated Press story about RNC members:

RNC member Bettye Fine Collins of Alabama said she supports Santorum because he can better relate to regular working people. That contrasts with Romney’s image as a wealthy investor who made millions on Wall Street.

All of the other quotes in that article were either not sufficient to count as an endorsement or were things we already knew. (I can’t just adopt the AP’s unpledged delegate count without a full listing of who’s endorsing who—the kind of listing that I’ve got here.)

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