Goobergunch Political Report

27 March 2012

So, About Those Huntsman Delegates

Goobergunch @ 17:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012
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So, way back in January, Jon Huntsman was allocated 2 delegates in New Hampshire and promptly dropped out of the race. Now:

Romney for President today announced that former Jon Huntsman delegate Paul Collins and former Huntsman alternate delegate Brad Blais will support Mitt Romney.

So this means a delegate gets moved from the Huntsman column to the Romney column, right? Unfortunately, it’s a bit more complicated than that. See, the New Hampshire allocation is based on the state losing half of its delegates due to RNC sanctions for having an early primary. And the list of delegates provided by the New Hampshire Secretary of State gives a delegate slate that does not reflect those sanctions. Meaning that there are 3 delegates listed for Huntsman, when only 2 will be able to vote at the convention.

(Looking to the 2008 convention, when New Hampshire was similarly sanctioned, doesn’t help. The state actually announced 24 votes for McCain from the convention floor, even though only 12 were counted by the Chair.)

In the spirit of not being helpful to the delegate count, we have this from the Manchester Union Leader:

Huntsman’s other two New Hampshire delegates, consultant Sarah Crawford Stewart and business executive Renee Plummer, told the Status this morning they remain uncommitted. Plummer said she intends to remain uncommitted until the Republican National Convention in late summer.

In the spirit of trying to make some kind of sense out of all of this, here’s what I’m going to do with the two Huntsman delegates:

  • The Union Leader claims that Huntsman’s “delegates were released when he dropped out”, but Huntsman’s 16 January statement was that he was suspending his campaign—not formally withdrawing. As such, I think this assertion is dubious. However, it is likely that if Huntsman has not yet released his delegates, he will do so prior to the convention. Huntsman supports Romney, and holding his delegates only hinders Romney from getting to 1144 delegates. Therefore, the two delegates now recorded as pledged to Huntsman will be considered unpledged. The Huntsman column will be removed from the delegate board.
  • There are no indications that the Republican Party is likely to restore New Hampshire to 24 delegates. They didn’t do so in 2008, and that convention wasn’t at all contentious. Therefore, I’m not going to adopt the alternative count that conforms with the New Hampshire Secretary of State’s list.
  • The delegate preferences of the three Huntsman delegates appears to be: Romney 1, Uncommitted 2. Given both the New Hampshire delegation’s overall lean and Huntsman’s endorsement of Romney, I’m inclined to predict that the rest of the Huntsman delegates are more likely to break to Romney than to any other candidate. So I’m going to give the benefit of the doubt to Collins’s seating and declare the current breakdown to be: Romney 1, Uncommitted 1.
  • If, later in the primary process, it appears that the result of the first ballot is seriously in doubt, I’ll be prepared to actually contact the Republican National Committee, or the New Hampshire Republican Party, and seek clarification about the composition of the New Hampshire delegate slate.

So yeah, this has been a really long-winded way of allocating Romney Delegate No. 515.

24 March 2012

The 2012 Louisiana Primary

Goobergunch @ 20:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012, GPR Live
Tags:

I’m not quite sure what to make of the RNC delegate count updates any more, since they haven’t taken into account, for instance, the Alaska shift. That being said, I’m still willing to take their word on tweaking Illinois to Romney 42, Santorum 12, based on the current leading delegates in the 16th and 18th districts. If the lead shifts when the results of the Illinois vote are finalized, I’ll mention it.

Meanwhile, polls have now closed in Louisiana. Louisiana has 46 delegates, of which 3 are RNC members and 23 will be named at the state convention in June. That leaves 20 delegates who will be allocated based on the results of tonight’s primary. There’s a 25% threshold for receiving delegates. The tally:

LA-R Gingrich Romney Santorum Unallocated
At Large 5 10 5
Last updated 22:12 Central Daylight Time

UPDATE [22:19 CDT]: We’re probably done for the night. 4 of the remaining 5 delegates will be officially “Uncommitted”, and we won’t have a chance to see who they prefer until they’re actually named in June. The fifth delegate will probably also be “Uncommitted”, but there’s a chance it could become Romney’s sixth delegate instead.

21 March 2012

Alaska Adjustments

Goobergunch @ 05:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012
Tags:

Final results are in from Super Tuesday’s Alaska caucuses, and the revised delegate count is: Romney 8, Santorum 8, Paul 6, Gingrich 2. Santorum picks up a delegate and Gingrich loses one.

No word yet on who, if anybody, Alaska’s three RNC member delegates are supporting.

20 March 2012

The 2012 Illinois Primary

Goobergunch @ 19:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012, GPR Live
Tags:

Polls have now closed in Illinois, which today is selecting 54 delegates to the Republican National Convention via direct election. The presidential preference vote reported by the media will be completely meaningless in terms of delegate allocation. Instead, voters in each Congressional district will be voting for specific delegates. (Also, Santorum failed to file delegate slates in the 4th, 5th, 7th, and 13th districts, so he’s not getting any delegates there.) Here’s the outcome:

IL-R Gingrich Paul Romney Santorum Unallocated
CD 1 3
CD 2 3
CD 3 3
CD 4 2
CD 5 3
CD 6 3
CD 7 2
CD 8 3
CD 9 3
CD 10 3
CD 11 3
CD 12 3
CD 13 3
CD 14 3
CD 15 4
CD 16 1 2
CD 17 3
CD 18 3 1
Total 41 10 3
Last updated 23:07 Central Daylight Time

The Illinois Republican Party State Convention will select 12 additional delegates to the convention in mid-June.

UPDATE [19:00 CDT]: In non-Illinois news, Carlos Méndez, Puerto Rico Republican Party chair, has switched his endorsement from Gingrich to Romney. This means that Romney has the support of all 23 Puerto Rico delegates.

UPDATE [23:21 CDT]: This might be all the delegates I’m going to be able allocate tonight. All precincts are reporting in CD 18, and a Santorum delegate is leading the final Gingrich delegate by 109 votes. In CD 16, 3 precincts are outstanding, and a number of delegates are within a thousand votes of each other. I might be able to allocate the final two CD 16 delegates when those last few precincts come in, but there’s no guarantee.

A Wyoming Shift

Goobergunch @ 13:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012
Tags:

Remember that disputed Wyoming delegate?

UPDATE [16:56 MST]:Fun!

PLEASE NOTE: PARK COUNTY RESULTS ARE NOW IN CONTESTED MODE AND ARE NOT CONSIDERED FINAL, BUT PENDING.

That’s a Santorum delegate at the moment; the caucus vote in Park County was reported as Santorum 29-27 Romney.

Well, the Park County Republican Executive Committee voted last night to award the delegate in question to Romney. So the revised Wyoming delegate count to date: Romney 9, Santorum 2, Paul 1, with 17 “unallocated”.

And while we’re on the subject of challenged delegates, apparently the Santorum campaign intends to pursue a credentials challenge against the Arizona and Florida delegations for being winner-take-all in violation of Republican party rules. Presently, Romney will get all 79 delegates from those states. The Santorum challenge would allocate those state delegates as follows:

Gingrich Paul Romney Santorum
AZ 5 2 14 8
FL 16 4 23 7
21 6 37 15

In total, this challenge would remove 42 delegates from the Romney column if successful.

I still think Romney gets the nomination on the first ballot, and I suspect tonight’s Illinois results will help solidify those expectations. But this year’s convention could still be quite entertaining.

18 March 2012

Romney Wins Puerto Rico

Goobergunch @ 17:59 PT
Posted in: Election 2012
Tags:

Romney gets all 20 pledged Puerto Rico delegates:

 Romney will top 50 percent and win all 20 of the island’s delegates to the Republican presidential nominating convention in August.

And Santorum looks silly for campaigning there.

Alabama Adjustments

Goobergunch @ 16:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012
Tags:

After resynchronizing the relevant portions of the delegate count with data from the Republican National Committee, the pledged delegate count from Alabama has been revised to: Santorum 22, Gingrich 14, Romney 11. All other pledged delegate counts from this week remain unadjusted.

Because numbers are rather dry, here’s a graphical representation of the state of the primary race at this point. Each square represents 1 delegate. Romney’s delegates are marked in blue, Santorum’s in red, Gingrich’s in orange, Paul’s in green, and Huntsman’s in violet. Gray squares indicate “uncommitted” delegates who have not announced support for a candidate—most of these are automatic RNC delegates.

Because I wanted to give some indication of how caucus states have voted, I’ve also added striped squares based on the Associated Press’s delegate allocation for caucus states. I do not endorse the methodology behind these counts and they may not actually resemble the final delegate allocation in these states. (Of these “fantasy delegates”, 73 are allocated to Santorum, 62 to Romney, and 15 to Paul.)

Romney 445, Santorum 184, Gingrich 138, Paul 35

In the upcoming week, 94 more delegates will be allocated from Puerto Rico, Illinois, and Louisiana.

13 March 2012

The 2012 Alabama, Mississippi, and More! Primaries

Goobergunch @ 19:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012, GPR Live
Tags:

After a Super Tuesday that went very expectedly, we have a couple states voting—Alabama and Mississippi—that have no clear favorite based on recent polling. So let’s see if tonight will finally help the Republicans decide on a candidate!

First, a bit of housekeeping: Jeanne Luckey, Republican National Committeewoman for Mississippi, has endorsed Romney. That’s his second delegate in the state and 404th nationwide.

Alabama has 47 pledged delegates. 26 will be allocated proportionally statewide, 2 will go to the winner of each Congressional district, and 1 will go to the runner-up in each Congressional district. There’s a 20% threshold requirement, so if only one candidate gets above 20% (or one candidate gets above 50%), that candidate gets all 3 of the Congressional district’s delegates. The tally:

AL-R Gingrich Romney Santorum Unallocated
CD 1 2 1
CD 2 2 1
CD 3 1 2
CD 4 1 2
CD 5 1 2
CD 6 1 2
CD 7 1 2
At Large 8 8 10
Total 13 11 21 2
Last updated 12:53 Central Daylight Time

Mississippi has 37 pledged delegates. 25 will be allocated proportionally statewide and 3 will be proportionally allocated in each Congressional district. Candidates must get 15% of the vote to be allocated delegates, and getting 50% of the vote gets you all the delegates. The tally:

MS-R Gingrich Romney Santorum Unallocated
CD 1 1 1 1
CD 2 1 1 1
CD 3 1 1 1
CD 4 1 1 1
At Large 8 8 9
Total 12 12 13
Last updated 22:04 Central Daylight Time

Hawaii is holding caucuses tonight that will proportionally bind 17 delegates, as follows:

HI-R Gingrich Paul Romney Santorum Unallocated
CD 1 2 1
CD 2 2 1
At Large 3 5 3
Total 3 9 5
Last updated 7:52 Hawaii Standard Time

Finally, American Samoa will hold a territorial caucus tonight to select its 6 non-automatic delegates. Those can be bound (or not) any way the caucus likes.

UPDATE [0:04 CDT]: I’m leaving Alabama districts 3, 6, and 7 as unallocated for now. There’s just not enough information to determine the winners without having precinct-level data.

UPDATE [0:46 CDT]: Romney wins American Samoa, picking up all 9 delegates (including the 3 superdelegates).

10 March 2012

Romney Delegate No. 401

Goobergunch @ 19:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012
Tags:

Add another superdelegate for Romney, this time from Washington, D.C.:

Of the four remaining GOP candidates, Rick Santorum is the only candidate not on the ballot in the District. The city’s Republican Committee Chairman Bob Kabel is backing Mitt Romney.

That’s Romney’s second District of Columbia delegate.

Romney Wins the Virgin Islands

Goobergunch @ 18:09 PT
Posted in: Election 2012
Tags:

Another AP report from the territories:

Chairman Herb Schoenbaum says Romney can count on seven delegates from the Virgin Islands. He already had three superdelegates before Saturday’s caucuses and he picked up three more in voting in St. Thomas and St. Croix. After the vote, an uncommitted delegate switched to Romney.

Ron Paul got one delegate, and one delegate remains uncommitted.

So the pledged delegate score from the Virgin Islands: Romney 4, Paul 1, Uncommitted 1. (And just for more counting fun, it looks like one of the Romney delegates is technically “Unbound”.)

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