Goobergunch Political Report

2012 Republican National Convention
(1144 delegates needed to nominate)
Gingrich Huntsman Paul Romney Santorum Unallocated
Selected 29 2 8 73 3 2039
Automatic 3 1 22 1 105
Total 32 2 9 95 4 2144

11 February 2012

Paul Delegate No. 9

Goobergunch @ 13:00 CT
Posted in: Election 2012
Tags:

After the messy tie that was the Iowa Caucuses, state Republican Party chairman Matt Strawn announced his retirement. His replacement was selected today:

Ames Republican A.J. Spiker is the new chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa.

Spiker is a real estate agent and state GOP central committee member. He’s well known for his strong backing of presidential candidate Ron Paul.

Spiker is Paul’s first automatic delegate, and his ninth overall—although I wouldn’t be surprised if Paul got a few delegates from the caucus states that have held first-round caucuses but haven’t formally allocated their national delegates yet.

UPDATE [21:23 CST]: I’ve seen a couple claims that the following tweet means that Spiker shouldn’t be counted for Paul:

However, that’s really just telling us that (1) Spiker isn’t actively working for the Paul campaign and (2) he’ll support whoever gets nominated, as opposed to a hypothetical third-party Paul bid. It says nothing about who Spiker will support on a hypothetical first ballot in which the nominee is unclear going in, and that’s really the scenario that the delegate count is most interested in. Obviously, if (as has been the case since 1976) there’s a clear Republican nominee when the convention starts, the projected delegate count here will be wildly inaccurate since most delegates will switch to whoever the expected nominee is.

9 February 2012

Romney Delegate No. 95

Goobergunch @ 16:00 CT
Posted in: Election 2012
Tags:

A bit old, but still:

[Illinois Republican Party Chairman Pat] Brady said he is supporting the former Massachusetts governor as, Brady believes, the best choice to oust President Obama.

Incidentally, while it’s true that Minnesota and Colorado didn’t directly select any delegates on Tuesday, 70 delegates will still be selected as a result of the process that began on Tuesday night. Mitt Romney’s inability to perform in those states may very well hurt him when it comes time for those states’ delegates to actually be selected. For reference, there are a total of 371 delegates selected by state party via a system that does not directly allocate delegates at the initial selection stage.

7 February 2012

Romney Delegates No. 93 and 94

Goobergunch @ 20:00 CT
Posted in: Election 2012
Tags:

First, a press release announcing Romney’s Wyoming leadership team lists Greg Schaefer, Wyoming Republican National Committeeman, as a state co-chair.

Second:

Constitutional scholar and [Indiana] Republican National Committee member James Bopp, Jr. wrote an open letter expressing his support of Mitt Romney….

As neither the Colorado nor Minnesota caucuses tonight allocate delegates directly, I won’t be tallying the results. (They’re similar to Iowa. The caucuses impact the eventual delegate selection, but the exact allocation can’t be accurately calculated yet.) The actual delegate selection in Colorado and Minnesota won’t be for a few more months.

4 February 2012

The 2012 Nevada Caucuses

Goobergunch @ 19:00 CT
Posted in: Election 2012, GPR Live
Tags:

It’s that time again! Specifically, time for all doors to have closed in today’s Nevada caucuses.

Unlike Iowa and most other Republican caucus states, the Nevada caucuses’ presidential preference vote directly determines the pledged delegate allocation for the states. There are 28 delegates at stake today, allocated proportionally as follows:

NV-R Gingrich Paul Romney Santorum Unallocated
Total 6 5 14 3
Last updated Sunday, 23:09 Pacific Standard Time

At this time, I can now project that Mitt Romney will receive the most votes in Nevada.

UPDATE [17:03 PST]: Apparently there’s one caucus that doesn’t vote for another two hours. Frankly, I’m tired of pretending that Nevada is too close to call or any such nonsense. The projection’s staying up.

UPDATE [21:00 PST]: Romney’s the only candidate that has a clear path to the nomination, but Gingrich and Santorum continue to stay in the race. I am entertained. Anyway, still waiting for Clark County returns to finish up the delegate count.

UPDATE [23:17 PST]: Still waiting on Clark County. Apparently they’re counting all the ballots by hand or something. Even then it shouldn’t take this long. I may just call it a night and update tomorrow morning.

UPDATE [11:20 PST, 5 Feb]: Dear Clark County GOP: Please learn to count. Most of us do it, at the latest, in elementary school.

UPDATE [11:48 PST]: Apparently it’s not just a counting problem:

With just half of the vote counted, officials have already discovered some discrepancies. In some precincts, the number of ballots did not match the number of voters who signed in to participate in the caucus. [...] State party secretary Jim DeGraffenreid said they are still determining “the facts” and then will decide how to proceed, but acknowledged the ballots from those precincts may be dumped from the results.

It’s not exactly news that the Nevada Republican Party is incompetent, but this is just impressively awful. (And to any Paul supporters that read this and cry voter fraud, there’s no evidence of that. Don’t attribute to malice what can be explained by stupidity.)

UPDATE [19:52 PST]: In case anybody is wondering, if the current vote percentages (with 89%) reporting holds up, the final three delegates go to Romney, Gingrich, and Santorum.

Gingrich Delegate No. 26

Goobergunch @ 14:00 CT
Posted in: Election 2012
Tags:

I have to say that the Gingrich campaign is doing a horrible job of actually announcing endorsements. It makes keeping track of delegates rather annoying. However, via twitter:

Jeff Johnson is the Republican National Committeeman for Minnesota, and accordingly, an automatic convention delegate.

Gingrich Delegate No. 25

Goobergunch @ 04:00 CT
Posted in: Election 2012
Tags:

This one slipped through the cracks earlier:

Before Gingrich arrived at the center, Puerto Rican men in suits roamed the sparsely populated sanctuary and women wearing their Sunday Best gently fanned themselves with signs that read, “Don’t believe the liberal media,” while Chris Tomlin classics ”Better Is One Day” and “We Cry Holy” trickled out of the PA system. The crowd came alive as Don Carlos Méndez, mayor of Aguadilla City, Puerto Rico, took the stage to introduce Gingrich.

Méndez is also the chair of the Puerto Rico Republican Party, and as such an automatic delegate.

31 January 2012

The 2012 Florida Republican Primary

Goobergunch @ 19:00 CT
Posted in: Election 2012

All the polls have closed in Florida, and I can now project that Mitt Romney has won the Florida primary and will receive all 50 of the state’s delegates. (If there are any credentials challenges to the winner-take-all nature of the state’s delegate allocation, I’ll address it later.)

Yeah, winner-take-all primaries that aren’t very close make for really boring election nights. I’ll have a post up about today’s special Congressional election in Oregon in three hours when the polls close there.

29 January 2012

Romney Delegate No. 28

Goobergunch @ 05:00 CT
Posted in: Election 2012
Tags:

Via press release:

Mitt Romney today announced the support of Puerto Rico Governor Luis G. Fortuño.

Republicans aren’t Democrats, so a gubernatorial endorsement isn’t usually an automatic delegate. However, Fortuño is also the Republican National Committeeman for Puerto Rico, and so he alone of all governors has an automatic ticket to the convention.

25 January 2012

Finishing Up SC

Goobergunch @ 13:00 CT
Posted in: Election 2012

At this time, I can now project that Mitt Romney has won the final two delegates in South Carolina, as discussed previously.

The delegate count now stands at Romney 27, Gingrich 24, with 6 scattered to other candidates and 2229 yet to be allocated. Six days until the Florida primary.

21 January 2012

The 2012 South Carolina Primary

Goobergunch @ 18:00 CT
Posted in: Election 2012, GPR Live
Tags:

Well, it’s time for the next round of Republican primary goodness. Tonight, we’re in South Carolina, where polls indicate that Newt Gingrich–who I had written off towards the end of December–is doing surprisingly well.

South Carolina’s delegates are selected via what I like to call a “Winner-Take-Most” system. Candidates get 2 delegates for each Congressional district they win. Additionally, the winner of the state as a whole gets the 11 at-large delegates. It’s not quite winner-take-all, but this selection process tends to heavily skew the delegates towards the statewide winner.

SC-R Gingrich Romney Unallocated
CD 1 2
CD 2 2
CD 3 2
CD 4 2
CD 5 2
CD 6 2
CD 7 2
At Large 11
Total 23 2
Last updated 20:47 Eastern Standard Time

UPDATE [19:00 EST by Goobergunch]: And as the polls close in South Carolina, the statewide winner is projected: Newt Gingrich. He’s immediately awarded the 11 at-large delegates, and he’ll probably get most of the remaining 14.

UPDATE [22:43 EST by Goobergunch]: Well, it’s obvious that Gingrich got all the delegates except for those in the 1st Congressional District, which includes two of the only three counties in the state that went for Romney. That seat is difficult to call based only on county-level data, so I’m waiting for more detailed information before calling that district.

UPDATE [3:02 EST by Goobergunch]: If I had to guess, I’d say that Romney picked up the final 2 delegates since he won Charleston, the heart of SC-1, fairly convincingly. But there’s enough outlying territory in SC-1 that I’m not quite comfortable calling it. Moreover, the Associated Press suggests that even with precinct-level data those last two delegates are too close to call. So I’m calling it a wrap for this election night. As always, the delegate count will be updated when I get new information.

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