Goobergunch Political Report

28 February 2012

The 2012 Michigan and Arizona Primaries

Goobergunch @ 19:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012, GPR Live
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After what amounted to a two-week break, the Republican presidential nomination process resumes tonight with primaries in Michigan and Arizona. Polls show a close race in Michigan, while Arizona is expected to support Romney.

Michigan will be allocating 30 delegates tonight, with the winner of each Congressional district receiving 2 delegates and the statewide winner receiving the final 2 delegates. (Some sources have suggested that the statewide delegates are technically proportional and they could be split 1-1 if the statewide margin is really close. However, I’m going to allocate them as winner-take-all tonight unless I hear otherwise.) Here’s the tally:

MI-R Paul Romney Santorum Unallocated
CD 1 2
CD 2 2
CD 3 2
CD 4 2
CD 5 2
CD 6 2
CD 7 2
CD 8 2
CD 9 2
CD 10 2
CD 11 2
CD 12 2
CD 13 2
CD 14 2
At Large 1 1
Total 15 15
Last updated 13:42 Eastern Standard Time

Meanwhile, in Arizona, where the polls don’t close until 7:00 Mountain Time, all 29 delegates will be allocated to the winner of that state’s primary. Like Florida, another state where a winner-take-all allocation was announced after the state had been stripped of half its delegates, I wouldn’t be too surprised to see a credentials challenge here should the choice of nominee be undecided by the convention. But we’re a ways off from having to think about that.

UPDATE [19:00 MST]: At this time I can project that Mitt Romney has won all 29 Arizona delegates.

UPDATE [21:22 EST]: With 31% reporting, I’d guess that the delegate allocation at the end of the night ends up as 16 Romney, 14 Santorum, with about 4-6 delegates in there that could go either way. It’s still too early to call most individual Congressional seats though.

UPDATE [22:00 EST]: At this time I am comfortable projecting that Romney is the statewide winner in Michigan.

UPDATE [22:36 EST]: So here’s where we stand, with Romney having won 14 delegates and Santorum with 6 so far tonight. Right now Santorum’s clearly ahead in CDs 1, 4, and 7. CD 5 is really close, and CD 10 is just hard to estimate because it’s not clear how much of the Macomb County vote is actually in that district.

UPDATE [22:56 EST]: Well, it now sounds like the at-large delegates are going to be evenly split between Romney and Santorum, so the delegate allocation has been accordingly updated. I probably won’t have final numbers for the last couple Congressional districts until tomorrow, because they’re dependent on precinct-level calculations for the new Congressional district lines.

UPDATE [29 Feb, 13:46 EST]: The delegate allocation has now been updated based on data from the Michigan Republican Party to a 15-15 tie. This data isn’t quite final, so it’s possible that a couple of the closer districts (like CD 1 and CD 5) might flip in the final allocation.

 

11 February 2012

Paul Delegate No. 9

Goobergunch @ 13:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012
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After the messy tie that was the Iowa Caucuses, state Republican Party chairman Matt Strawn announced his retirement. His replacement was selected today:

Ames Republican A.J. Spiker is the new chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa.

Spiker is a real estate agent and state GOP central committee member. He’s well known for his strong backing of presidential candidate Ron Paul.

Spiker is Paul’s first automatic delegate, and his ninth overall—although I wouldn’t be surprised if Paul got a few delegates from the caucus states that have held first-round caucuses but haven’t formally allocated their national delegates yet.

UPDATE [21:23 CST]: I’ve seen a couple claims that the following tweet means that Spiker shouldn’t be counted for Paul:

However, that’s really just telling us that (1) Spiker isn’t actively working for the Paul campaign and (2) he’ll support whoever gets nominated, as opposed to a hypothetical third-party Paul bid. It says nothing about who Spiker will support on a hypothetical first ballot in which the nominee is unclear going in, and that’s really the scenario that the delegate count is most interested in. Obviously, if (as has been the case since 1976) there’s a clear Republican nominee when the convention starts, the projected delegate count here will be wildly inaccurate since most delegates will switch to whoever the expected nominee is.

9 February 2012

Romney Delegate No. 95

Goobergunch @ 16:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012
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A bit old, but still:

[Illinois Republican Party Chairman Pat] Brady said he is supporting the former Massachusetts governor as, Brady believes, the best choice to oust President Obama.

Incidentally, while it’s true that Minnesota and Colorado didn’t directly select any delegates on Tuesday, 70 delegates will still be selected as a result of the process that began on Tuesday night. Mitt Romney’s inability to perform in those states may very well hurt him when it comes time for those states’ delegates to actually be selected. For reference, there are a total of 371 delegates selected by state party via a system that does not directly allocate delegates at the initial selection stage.

7 February 2012

Romney Delegates No. 93 and 94

Goobergunch @ 20:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012
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First, a press release announcing Romney’s Wyoming leadership team lists Greg Schaefer, Wyoming Republican National Committeeman, as a state co-chair.

Second:

Constitutional scholar and [Indiana] Republican National Committee member James Bopp, Jr. wrote an open letter expressing his support of Mitt Romney….

As neither the Colorado nor Minnesota caucuses tonight allocate delegates directly, I won’t be tallying the results. (They’re similar to Iowa. The caucuses impact the eventual delegate selection, but the exact allocation can’t be accurately calculated yet.) The actual delegate selection in Colorado and Minnesota won’t be for a few more months.

4 February 2012

The 2012 Nevada Caucuses

Goobergunch @ 19:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012, GPR Live
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It’s that time again! Specifically, time for all doors to have closed in today’s Nevada caucuses.

Unlike Iowa and most other Republican caucus states, the Nevada caucuses’ presidential preference vote directly determines the pledged delegate allocation for the states. There are 28 delegates at stake today, allocated proportionally as follows:

NV-R Gingrich Paul Romney Santorum Unallocated
Total 6 5 14 3
Last updated Sunday, 23:09 Pacific Standard Time

At this time, I can now project that Mitt Romney will receive the most votes in Nevada.

UPDATE [17:03 PST]: Apparently there’s one caucus that doesn’t vote for another two hours. Frankly, I’m tired of pretending that Nevada is too close to call or any such nonsense. The projection’s staying up.

UPDATE [21:00 PST]: Romney’s the only candidate that has a clear path to the nomination, but Gingrich and Santorum continue to stay in the race. I am entertained. Anyway, still waiting for Clark County returns to finish up the delegate count.

UPDATE [23:17 PST]: Still waiting on Clark County. Apparently they’re counting all the ballots by hand or something. Even then it shouldn’t take this long. I may just call it a night and update tomorrow morning.

UPDATE [11:20 PST, 5 Feb]: Dear Clark County GOP: Please learn to count. Most of us do it, at the latest, in elementary school.

UPDATE [11:48 PST]: Apparently it’s not just a counting problem:

With just half of the vote counted, officials have already discovered some discrepancies. In some precincts, the number of ballots did not match the number of voters who signed in to participate in the caucus. [...] State party secretary Jim DeGraffenreid said they are still determining “the facts” and then will decide how to proceed, but acknowledged the ballots from those precincts may be dumped from the results.

It’s not exactly news that the Nevada Republican Party is incompetent, but this is just impressively awful. (And to any Paul supporters that read this and cry voter fraud, there’s no evidence of that. Don’t attribute to malice what can be explained by stupidity.)

UPDATE [19:52 PST]: In case anybody is wondering, if the current vote percentages (with 89%) reporting holds up, the final three delegates go to Romney, Gingrich, and Santorum.

Gingrich Delegate No. 26

Goobergunch @ 14:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012
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I have to say that the Gingrich campaign is doing a horrible job of actually announcing endorsements. It makes keeping track of delegates rather annoying. However, via twitter:

Jeff Johnson is the Republican National Committeeman for Minnesota, and accordingly, an automatic convention delegate.

Gingrich Delegate No. 25

Goobergunch @ 04:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012
Tags:

This one slipped through the cracks earlier:

Before Gingrich arrived at the center, Puerto Rican men in suits roamed the sparsely populated sanctuary and women wearing their Sunday Best gently fanned themselves with signs that read, “Don’t believe the liberal media,” while Chris Tomlin classics ”Better Is One Day” and “We Cry Holy” trickled out of the PA system. The crowd came alive as Don Carlos Méndez, mayor of Aguadilla City, Puerto Rico, took the stage to introduce Gingrich.

Méndez is also the chair of the Puerto Rico Republican Party, and as such an automatic delegate.

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