After what amounted to a two-week break, the Republican presidential nomination process resumes tonight with primaries in Michigan and Arizona. Polls show a close race in Michigan, while Arizona is expected to support Romney.
Michigan will be allocating 30 delegates tonight, with the winner of each Congressional district receiving 2 delegates and the statewide winner receiving the final 2 delegates. (Some sources have suggested that the statewide delegates are technically proportional and they could be split 1-1 if the statewide margin is really close. However, I’m going to allocate them as winner-take-all tonight unless I hear otherwise.) Here’s the tally:
|Last updated 13:42 Eastern Standard Time|
Meanwhile, in Arizona, where the polls don’t close until 7:00 Mountain Time, all 29 delegates will be allocated to the winner of that state’s primary. Like Florida, another state where a winner-take-all allocation was announced after the state had been stripped of half its delegates, I wouldn’t be too surprised to see a credentials challenge here should the choice of nominee be undecided by the convention. But we’re a ways off from having to think about that.
UPDATE [19:00 MST]: At this time I can project that Mitt Romney has won all 29 Arizona delegates.
UPDATE [21:22 EST]: With 31% reporting, I’d guess that the delegate allocation at the end of the night ends up as 16 Romney, 14 Santorum, with about 4-6 delegates in there that could go either way. It’s still too early to call most individual Congressional seats though.
UPDATE [22:00 EST]: At this time I am comfortable projecting that Romney is the statewide winner in Michigan.
UPDATE [22:36 EST]: So here’s where we stand, with Romney having won 14 delegates and Santorum with 6 so far tonight. Right now Santorum’s clearly ahead in CDs 1, 4, and 7. CD 5 is really close, and CD 10 is just hard to estimate because it’s not clear how much of the Macomb County vote is actually in that district.
UPDATE [22:56 EST]: Well, it now sounds like the at-large delegates are going to be evenly split between Romney and Santorum, so the delegate allocation has been accordingly updated. I probably won’t have final numbers for the last couple Congressional districts until tomorrow, because they’re dependent on precinct-level calculations for the new Congressional district lines.
UPDATE [29 Feb, 13:46 EST]: The delegate allocation has now been updated based on data from the Michigan Republican Party to a 15-15 tie. This data isn’t quite final, so it’s possible that a couple of the closer districts (like CD 1 and CD 5) might flip in the final allocation.