Goobergunch Political Report

31 January 2012

Oh Right, OR-1

Goobergunch @ 22:16 PT
Posted in: By-Elections

At this time I can now project that Democrat Suzanne Bonamici has defeated Republican Rob Cornilles. This is a Democratic hold.

The 2012 Florida Republican Primary

Goobergunch @ 19:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012

All the polls have closed in Florida, and I can now project that Mitt Romney has won the Florida primary and will receive all 50 of the state’s delegates. (If there are any credentials challenges to the winner-take-all nature of the state’s delegate allocation, I’ll address it later.)

Yeah, winner-take-all primaries that aren’t very close make for really boring election nights. I’ll have a post up about today’s special Congressional election in Oregon in three hours when the polls close there.

29 January 2012

Romney Delegate No. 28

Goobergunch @ 05:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012

Via press release:

Mitt Romney today announced the support of Puerto Rico Governor Luis G. Fortuño.

Republicans aren’t Democrats, so a gubernatorial endorsement isn’t usually an automatic delegate. However, Fortuño is also the Republican National Committeeman for Puerto Rico, and so he alone of all governors has an automatic ticket to the convention.

25 January 2012

Finishing Up SC

Goobergunch @ 13:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012

At this time, I can now project that Mitt Romney has won the final two delegates in South Carolina, as discussed previously.

The delegate count now stands at Romney 27, Gingrich 24, with 6 scattered to other candidates and 2229 yet to be allocated. Six days until the Florida primary.

23 January 2012

United States v. Jones

Goobergunch @ 17:00 PT
Posted in: Justice Will Be Met, Indeed

Some awesomeness from Justice Sotomayor’s concurrence in United States v. Jones (in which the Court held that attachment of a GPS device to a vehicle was a Fourth Amendment “search”):

I would ask whether people reasonably expect that their movements will be recorded and aggregated in a manner that enables the Government to ascertain, more or less at will, their political and religious beliefs, sexual habits, and so on. I do not regard as dispositive the fact that the Government might obtain the fruits of GPS monitoring through lawful conventional surveillance techniques. I would also consider the appropriateness of entrusting to the Executive, in the absence of any oversight from a coordinate branch, a tool so amenable to misuse, especially in light of the Fourth Amendment’s goal to curb arbitrary exercises of police power to and prevent “a too permeating police surveillance.”

More fundamentally, it may be necessary to reconsider the premise that an individual has no reasonable expectation of privacy in information voluntarily disclosed to third parties. This approach is ill suited to the digital age, in which people reveal a great deal of information about themselves to third parties in the course of carrying out mundane tasks. Perhaps, as Justice Alito notes, some people may find the “tradeoff” of privacy for convenience “worthwhile,” or come to accept this “diminution of privacy” as “inevitable,” and perhaps not. I for one doubt that people would accept without complaint the warrantless disclosure to the Government of a list of every Web site they had visited in the last week, or month, or year. But whatever the societal expectations, they can attain constitutionally protected status only if our Fourth Amendment jurisprudence ceases to treat secrecy as a prerequisite for privacy. I would not assume that all information voluntarily disclosed to some member of the public for a limited purpose is, for that reason alone, disentitled to Fourth Amendment protection.

21 January 2012

The 2012 South Carolina Primary

Goobergunch @ 18:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012, GPR Live

Well, it’s time for the next round of Republican primary goodness. Tonight, we’re in South Carolina, where polls indicate that Newt Gingrich–who I had written off towards the end of December–is doing surprisingly well.

South Carolina’s delegates are selected via what I like to call a “Winner-Take-Most” system. Candidates get 2 delegates for each Congressional district they win. Additionally, the winner of the state as a whole gets the 11 at-large delegates. It’s not quite winner-take-all, but this selection process tends to heavily skew the delegates towards the statewide winner.

SC-R Gingrich Romney Unallocated
CD 1 2
CD 2 2
CD 3 2
CD 4 2
CD 5 2
CD 6 2
CD 7 2
At Large 11
Total 23 2
Last updated 20:47 Eastern Standard Time

UPDATE [19:00 EST by Goobergunch]: And as the polls close in South Carolina, the statewide winner is projected: Newt Gingrich. He’s immediately awarded the 11 at-large delegates, and he’ll probably get most of the remaining 14.

UPDATE [22:43 EST by Goobergunch]: Well, it’s obvious that Gingrich got all the delegates except for those in the 1st Congressional District, which includes two of the only three counties in the state that went for Romney. That seat is difficult to call based only on county-level data, so I’m waiting for more detailed information before calling that district.

UPDATE [3:02 EST by Goobergunch]: If I had to guess, I’d say that Romney picked up the final 2 delegates since he won Charleston, the heart of SC-1, fairly convincingly. But there’s enough outlying territory in SC-1 that I’m not quite comfortable calling it. Moreover, the Associated Press suggests that even with precinct-level data those last two delegates are too close to call. So I’m calling it a wrap for this election night. As always, the delegate count will be updated when I get new information.

Imputed Romney Delegates

Goobergunch @ 17:30 PT
Posted in: Election 2012

CNN is reporting that Mitt Romney has all 3 RNC member delegates from both Rhode Island and the Virgin Islands. By implication, that means that Ken McKay Mark Zaccaria and Carol Mumford of Rhode Island, as well as Holland Redfield and Lilliana Belardo de O’Neal of the Virgin Islands, support Romney.

CNN also has an RNC member delegate endorsement for Newt Gingrich in Nebraska, but since I have no idea who that is I’m not adding it. (If you do, drop a message in the comments.)

Let’s Be Honest

Goobergunch @ 05:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012

Since I’m tired of people asking about Iowa:

The vote results reported on caucus night, and now revised to show Santorum in the lead, are based on a tally conducted by caucus attendees. Unlike Iowa Democratic caucuses, they’re not scaled by anything and aren’t necessarily reflective of the eventual outcome. However, since the caucus attendees are (at least theoretically) the same people that vote on the delegates to the county conventions that vote on the delegates to the Congressional district conventions that vote on the delegates to the state convention that votes on the delegates to the national convention, one would hope that the results would in some way reflect the caucus-night tallies.

That being said, “reflect” is a wonderfully broad term and can’t be used for any actual calculations. So I’m just pulling the Iowa numbers until a bit later in the that state’s process. It’s not like the state really has that many delegates anyway.

20 January 2012

Gingrich Delegate No. 3, Romney Delegates No. 27-28

Goobergunch @ 23:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012

A couple new superdelegate additions from this AP story:

Herbert Schoenbohm, the GOP chairman in the Virgin Islands, said that beating Obama is important, but his support for Romney goes much deeper.


Lawrence Kadish, an RNC member from Long Island, N.Y., challenged that assessment, saying Gingrich “towers head and shoulders over those other candidates. I don’t view Mr. Romney as having a deep rudder, but he’s OK.”

And from the L.A. Times:

Indeed, two top Perry fundraisers—Mississippi-based political strategist Henry Barbour and Dirk Van Dongen, a lobbyist who co-chaired the governor’s fundraising efforts in Washington–signed on to the Romney camp Thursday.

(Barbour’s an RNC member, Van Dongen isn’t.)


19 January 2012

Pre-SC Updates

Goobergunch @ 20:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012
  • Jon Huntsman dropped out and endorsed Mitt Romney. He keeps his two delegates from New Hampshire until they say who they’re endorsing.
  • Rick Perry dropped out and endorsed Newt Gingrich. His four delegates are removed, as they were all formally unpledged.
  • Rick Santorum was declared the winner in Iowa. Not that it really matters at this point.
  • Romney superdelegate added: Rich Williamson (IL).
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