Goobergunch Political Report

From a press release tonight:

Mitt Romney today announced the support of RNC Committeeman for Pennsylvania Bob Asher.

And so apparently I’ll keep Romney’s delegate tally constant from last night to the end of tonight.

After review, I’ve gone ahead and struck all of the RNC member automatic delegate slots from the states that are sanctioned for having early primaries. Most notably, this removes two Romney endorsers from Michigan from the count, dropping his delegate total to 8. Note that in 2008, unlike Democrats, Republicans didn’t restore the full slates of sanctioned delegations after the primaries were over.

Now’s probably a good time to restate the purpose of the GPR Delegate Count—namely, to provide the most accurate possible count of delegate preferences on the first ballot at the 2012 Republican National Convention. It’s not intended to track RNC member endorsements (or, for that matter, any other endorsements)—that’s just a necessary side effect of keeping the tally accurate. As per the last couple times I’ve done this, the delegate count will remain updated until either (1) a candidate has enough delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot, (2) only one candidate with delegates remains in the race for the nomination, or (3) the roll call of the first ballot of the convention has actually begun (in which case I’ll probably just freeze the original count and begin a new live count for future ballots). This includes any changes in delegate candidate preference from initial estimates (especially in early caucus states, where the estimate from initial caucus preferences often varies from the delegates that finally get named at the state convention) and by actual named delegates, especially those of candidates who later drop out.

In accordance with this policy, there’s some ambiguity over whether or not a couple RNC members from New Jersey support Romney. I’m not going to make any kind of judgment call, because all of New Jersey’s delegates—including the RNC members—will be pledged to the winner of New Jersey’s primary on the first ballot.

It’s also worth reiterating that the early delegate count isn’t particularly meaningful. Heck, the actual delegate count often (but not always, as we saw in 2008) doesn’t always play a major role in determining the nominee. When one candidate dominates most of the states that have voted by Super Tuesday, it’s a good bet that they’re going to be the nominee even though they might not yet have enough delegates to actually win the nomination.

In other news, I was actually lying about Romney’s delegate total falling to 8, because there’s a new Massachusetts Republican Party chairman:

A Mitt Romney supporter who believes the former Bay State governor will win the Republican presidential nomination, Maginn said a Romney candidacy would be the best formula for Republicans to combat the enthusiasm expected among Democrats for President Barack Obama and the eventual Democratic nominee to challenge Brown.

So bump that tally up to 9.

I’ve made some adjustments to the Republican delegate count. Most notably, I’ve removed a number of RNC members from the chart. While they will be attending the convention, they’ll be pledged in some fashion and won’t get to make up their own minds who to support on the first ballot, so their endorsement isn’t meaningful. This includes three Mitt Romney endorsers and one Rick Perry endorser, bringing the current tally to:

I’m still in the process of verifying the delegate selection process, including sanctions, for several of the early states. The only effect this should have on the current tally is in Michigan, where I expect to remove Romney’s two delegates. However, the total number of delegates available may be tweaked slightly. At the moment, there are 2288 total delegates to the 2012 Republican National Convention, with 1145 needed to nominate.

Of course, the putative national frontrunner right now isn’t even on the board. According to the latest CNN/TIME poll, Newt Gingrich is ahead in Iowa, South Carolina, and winner-take-all Florida, while Romney’s lead in New Hampshire shrinks. If those polling results were to hold up, the delegate count might look something like this:

From the West Virginia endorsement list that the Romney campaign released:

• Donna Gosney (Madison) – Gosney is WV Republican National Committeewoman and was Co-Chair of Governor Romney’s WV 2008 campaign.
• Jim Reed (Clay) – Reed is WV Republican National Committeeman.

That’s two more delegates for Romney, putting him at 13—although that number is almost certainly going to drop in the next couple weeks as I finalize delegate selection procedures information.

Meanwhile, Gingrich leads in Iowa….