This is Part 3 of a 50-part series examining the Congressional districts in place for the 2012-2020 election cycles.
We resume our look at the at–large Congressional seats with an examination of North Dakota, a state that lost its second district after the 1970 census. Legislative redistricting will likely occur towards the end of this year, but that’s no reason to delay this post.
Like Vermont and Wyoming before it, North Dakota presents no interesting questions of ethnic composition.
ND-AL (North Dakota)
Population: 672,591
Ethnicity (2009 est.): 91.1% white
Incumbent: Rick Berg (R)
2008 Presidential Vote: McCain 53%, Obama 44%
2012 Outlook: GOP Hold Favored
North Dakota has been surprisingly Democratic in Congressional races for a while. Since 1987, the state had had an all–Democratic Congressional delegation, even while voting for a Republican White House. In 2008, some even thought Obama might pick up an extra three electoral votes here.
However, the national Republican wave swept through North Dakota in 2010. Incumbent Congressman Earl Pomeroy received only 45% of the vote, while Senator Byron Dorgan opted to retire in the face of a probable challenge from popular Governor John Hoeven. With the rural populism of the old Democratic / Non–Partisan League alliance becoming a thing of history, Republicans are the early favorites to retain this seat.
With 3 states considered, the notional partisan breakdown of the House prior to the 2012 election is: GOP 2, DEM 1. (No net change.)