This is Part 6 of a 50-part series examining the Congressional districts in place for the 2012-2020 election cycles.
We’re starting to run out of at-large Congressional seats, but there are are still a couple left. This week, it’s time for a look at Delaware, which last had a second Congressional seat in 1823. (And even then, both Representatives were elected at-large.) While legislative redistricting will occur later this year, Congressional redistricting has never been an issue for Delaware.
Delaware has a substantial minority population, especially in the Wilmington area, but as I’ve said before and will thankfully not have to say again for another decade, this obviously has no impact on the Congressional map.
DE-AL (Delaware)
Population: 897,934
Ethnicity (2009 est.): 73.9% white, 21.1% black
Incumbent: John Carney (D)
2008 Presidential Vote: Obama 62%, McCain 37%
2012 Outlook: Safe DEM Hold
Delaware has traditionally been amenable to moderate Republicans. Bill Roth represented the state in the Senate for three decades, and Mike Castle, a former Governor and 9-term Congressman, looked to be a shoo-in for the Senate seat formerly occupied by Vice President Biden. But then, surprisingly, Castle was defeated in the Republican primary by Tea Party candidate Christine O’Donnell, who was in turn easily defeated by Democrat Chris Coons on the same night that Democrats reclaimed the at-large House seat. Democrats now control the state government, both Senate seats, and the House seat. While it’s conceivable that a moderate Republican could be competitive here, it’s much harder to see how such a moderate would actually get the nomination.
With 6 states considered, the notional partisan breakdown of the House prior to the 2012 election is: GOP 4, DEM 2. (No net change.)