Goobergunch Political Report

1 November 2010

Writing Up The House

Goobergunch @ 18:00 PT
Posted in: Dynamic Race Ratings, Election 2010
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I’m not going to pretend to have some deep insight into the House that nobody else does. Realistically, I agree with Nate Silver that we won’t have a really good read on what’s going to happen across the House races until polls have closed and results are being counted. That being said, if we combine the general pundit consensus of a net 55 or so seat loss for the Democrats with my House race ranking chart, we (after remembering to add in about four seats for Democratic gains) can envision a Republican wave sweeping down to claim almost every Democrat in a reasonably conservative district, including long–time Representatives like Skelton and Taylor. If there’s an even larger wave, it’ll manifest itself in districts that one really wouldn’t expect to see a Republican win.

Of course, a wave does not break evenly—one interesting thing to watch tomorrow night will be which apparently endangered House seats are saved and what the unexpected victories will be. Should be exciting to watch.

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