Goobergunch Political Report

1 November 2010

Writing Up The House

Goobergunch @ 18:00 PT
Posted in: Dynamic Race Ratings, Election 2010
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I’m not going to pretend to have some deep insight into the House that nobody else does. Realistically, I agree with Nate Silver that we won’t have a really good read on what’s going to happen across the House races until polls have closed and results are being counted. That being said, if we combine the general pundit consensus of a net 55 or so seat loss for the Democrats with my House race ranking chart, we (after remembering to add in about four seats for Democratic gains) can envision a Republican wave sweeping down to claim almost every Democrat in a reasonably conservative district, including long–time Representatives like Skelton and Taylor. If there’s an even larger wave, it’ll manifest itself in districts that one really wouldn’t expect to see a Republican win.

Of course, a wave does not break evenly—one interesting thing to watch tomorrow night will be which apparently endangered House seats are saved and what the unexpected victories will be. Should be exciting to watch.

Final Senate Predictions

Goobergunch @ 16:00 PT
Posted in: Dynamic Race Ratings, Election 2010
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I’ve posted the final Senate predictions at the usual place. A few comments:

In the last few days, it’s seemed that Joe Manchin’s lead in the West Virginia race has stabilized, while Patty Murray’s lead in Washington has been decreasing. While Washington is mostly vote–by–mail and a lot of the vote there has been already submitted, at this point I’m more comfortable predicting a Manchin victory than a Murray win. Both remain rated at “Tilts DEM”.

Nevada, Colorado, and Illinois remain easily the closest races in the country. Currently I see small leads for Republicans Joe Buck and Mark Kirk, but those could easily be wiped out if the Democrats just do a little better than expected on Election Day. Meanwhile, there are a number of conflicting indicators in Nevada. I’m currently betting that the analysts and the early vote indicators are more accurate than the public polling in the race. If not, then it’ll be another Republican gain.

Pennsylvania is also close, but I’m keeping the race rating at “Leans GOP”. I’ll be very happy if Joe Sestak pulls it out, but I’m not really expecting it to happen.

Finally, Alaska is just completely confusing. I don’t even know the last time when there was a race with both a serious write–in candidate and this level of tactical voting. I’m giving the Republicans a slight edge, but really we’ll know in a couple weeks. (Alaska counts sloooooow… even discounting the legal fun that we’ll probably see here.)

Oh, and my TV needs to stop pretending that Christine O’Donnell has a shot at winning in Delaware. I’ll be surprised if that race isn’t called for Chris Coons by 7:30 Eastern Time.

2010 Gubernatorial Races

While I tend to focus more on federal races than on state–specific contests here, there’s no denying that gubernatorial races are actually fairly important, especially in the last election before a redistricting cycle. So here’s my picks for who will win the governor’s chairs up tomorrow, complete with pithy analysis. If you want something a bit less terse, that’s what the comments are for.
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