Goobergunch Political Report

2012 Republican National Convention
(1144 delegates needed to nominate)
Gingrich Huntsman Paul Romney Santorum Unallocated
Selected 29 2 8 73 3 2039
Automatic 3 1 22 1 105
Total 32 2 9 95 4 2144

29 September 2010

Election Recess

And Congress is pretty much out. The FY 2011 continuing resolution just passed the House 228–194 (after passing the Senate 69–30 earlier today) so we get to have a functional government until at least 3 December. (I’m not waiting for the Presidential signature to update the countdown timer.)

It’s always kind of fun watching Congress scurry with activity right before a break. We also got NASA Authorization, Intelligence Authorization, and three other less high–profile bills cleared for President Obama today. Pity the Senate is still gridlocked, although even they got a couple of treaties and a big truckful of nominations approved.

Also, the hullabaloo about the adjournment resolution only passing by one vote is overblown. There were a number of Democrats that switched their votes from “yea” to “nay” right before the vote was announced, presumably once they had gotten permission from the whip team to vote against. Realistically, the adjournment resolution was never in danger of failing—the Democratic leadership just wanted to give their more vulnerable members another vote to help them proclaim their independence from the party when they go back to campaign.

The House and Senate haven’t quite adjourned yet, but when they do, the next meeting will be on Monday, 15 November, a good two weeks after the election. There’s no shortage of things for them to do when they get back.

22 September 2010

Closing Out the House Session

Goobergunch @ 17:46 CT
Posted in: Small Business, Ways and Means
Tags:

The rule [PDF] for the Small Business Jobs bill just got released, and it’s pretty standard. So look for that bill (it’s the same version [PDF] as passed the Senate last week) to finally get cleared for the President tomorrow.

The most interesting thing about this rule, though, is Section 3, which permits same–day consideration of Rules Committee resolutions in the House through next Friday, 1 October. In plain English, that means that the Democratic leadership doesn’t have to give more than a few hours’ notice of any legislation that comes up. While I’ve seen “martial law” rules before from both parties, I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen one that’s been valid for more than a week before. I’m guessing that this is to permit flexibility in considering the tax cut extension bill about which all kinds of wonderful rumors are percolating, but I’m guessing we won’t hear anything more specific until some of those rumors coalesce into fact.

21 September 2010

Defense Authorization Filibuster Continues

Goobergunch @ 14:02 CT
Posted in: Voting and Elections, War and National Defense
Tags:

The cloture vote on the motion to proceed to S. 3454, the Defense Authorization bill, just failed 56-43. The status of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell repeal, the DREAM Act (immigration reform for servicemembers), and other defense–related matters for the duration of this Congress remains uncertain, as the Senate can’t even begin to consider them.

Waiting to hear what the Senate’s agenda for the rest of the current work period is. The Majority Leader (Sen. Reid) did move to reconsider the cloture vote, so we might see defense authorization come back. There’s also the pesky matter of government funding, given that none of the 12 appropriations bills for FY2011 have even been brought up in the Senate yet.

UPDATE [16:20 CDT by Goobergunch]: Reid’s spokesman tweets:

We’re debating DISCLOSE Act tomorrow w/ vote Thursday

That’s the campaign finance reform bill that passed the House in late June. A previous cloture vote on proceeding to the bill failed 57-41 on 27 July, so I’m guessing reconsideration of that vote will what happens on Thursday.

UPDATE [21:37 CDT by Goobergunch]: The program announcement at the end of today’s Senate session said that the pending business will remain the motion to proceed to the Defense Authorization bill. I’m not sure what the point of this is unless the Senate Democrats think they’re going to shift three votes really really quickly.

20 September 2010

Rule XIII Revisited

Goobergunch @ 12:50 CT
Posted in: Election 2010
Tags: , ,

From Politico today:

House Republicans plan to unveil their governing agenda this Thursday, rolling out party’s priorities just a few weeks before voters hit the polls in the best environment for Republicans since they won both chambers of Congress in 1994.

[snipped]

The specifics of the agenda have been held tightly by Republicans, but they have already committed to proposing a constitutional test for each bill considered in the House, and they will push a “read the bill” provision that makes final versions of legislation available for the public and lawmakers to read before the House votes.

What is this Constitutional test for legislation? Well, Politico gave us a little more detail last week:

One of the GOP proposals would require bills to have a specific citation of constitutional authority, on the heels of criticism that Democrats breached their constitutional limits in Congress with big-ticket bills like health care reform. If a member questioned whether the House had constitutional authority to pass a bill, that challenge would receive debate and a vote.

Which sounds great. Except when you actually read the Rules of the House of Representatives [PDF].

RULE XIII — Calendars and Committee Reports

[snipped]

3. Content of reports

[snipped]

(d) Each report of a committee on a public bill or public joint resolution shall contain the following:

(1) A statement citing the specific powers granted to Congress in the Constitution to enact the law proposed by the bill or joint resolution.

Now I don’t think this is precisely what the Republicans are proposing. I interpret their proposal to require something like an extra section on every bill with a Constitutional citation. But there is no real difference for bills that make the headlines—in other words, bills that will get full committee consideration and a report. (I don’t think that many voters are demanding that every bill that names a post office specified that it does so under Article I, Section 8, Clause 7.) In fact, let’s consider the health care bill that this is allegedly a response to. From House Report 111-299, Part 3:

XV. CONSTITUTIONAL AUTHORITY STATEMENT

Under clause 3(d)(1) of rule XIII of the Rules of the House of Representatives, the Committee must include a statement citing the specific powers granted to Congress in the Constitution to enact the law proposed by H.R. 3200. The amendments and new law made by this bill are within Congress’ authority under Article I, Section 8, Clauses 1, 3, and 18 of the Constitution.

Obviously, the Republicans don’t have to agree that the stated clauses actually give Congress the power to enact the health care bill. But that’s ultimately a matter for the courts to decide. The committee report has provided a “specific citation of constitutional authority” for the bill. The Republicans are essentially campaigning to enact something that already exists.

As for the proposal to force a debate and vote on alleged Constitutional violations, I don’t think this does anything but waste the House’s time. If a Representative thinks a bill is unconstitutional and so should not pass, they’re not going to vote for it anyway. The Senate does have a similar provision, and when it was invoked against the D.C. House Voting Rights bill in February 2009, only one Senator did not vote the same way on both the vote on the point of order and the vote on passage.

16 September 2010

End of the Congressional Week

And Congress wraps up another short week. The Senate passed H.R. 5297, the Small Business Jobs bill, 61-38, so that goes back to the House now. Meanwhile, the House passed H.R. 4785, the Rural Energy Star bill, 240–172. I’d have the text of that as passed, but the Democrats accepted a motion to recommit by Rep. John Shadegg (Phoenix North, AZ)(R). According to the Clerk of the House:

The instructions contained in the motion seek to require the bill to be reported back to the House with an amendment which requires certain provisions be met in order for funds to be made available. The amendment also states that the provisions of the Act shall be suspended and shall not apply if the Act will have a negative effect on the national budget deficit of the United States.

But the actual legislative text isn’t available online anywhere, and won’t be until the Congressional Record comes out tomorrow. So much for reading the bill. (For the text of the bill without the motion to recommit included, see here.

Next week, the Senate moves to S. 3454, the Defense Authorization bill. The most controversial provision in that bill is the Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell repeal, which has drawn yet another Republican filibuster on this usually noncontroversial bill.  The cloture vote on the motion to proceed is scheduled for 14:15 EDT on Tuesday, which means that it’s unlikely that the Senate will even begin formal consideration of the bill until Thursday.

No word on the House schedule yet.

14 September 2010

A Castle Falls


DE–SEN (GOP Primary)
Christine O’Donnell 53.7%
27,674
Mike Castle 46.3%
23,874
86% reporting

I’d like to thank the Delaware Republicans for handing a Senate seat to the Democrats tonight. While it was easy to see how moderate Republican Rep. Castle could win a House seat in Democratic–leaning Delaware, it’s really hard to see how O’Donnell—charitably viewed as “insane” by most observers—can defeat New Castle County Executive Chris Coons. While just last week it looked like Castle was clearly favored to become the next Senator from Delaware, this race now has to be regarded as a likely Democratic hold. I’d feel bad for the NRSC, but the schadenfreude right now is kind of epic.

The Dynamic Race Ratings map will be updated in a couple hours.

UPDATE [22:00 by Goobergunch]: Race Ratings are updated, and there’s now a nice link on the sidebar to view them.

11 September 2010

A Quiet Pre-Election Session?

Congress is a weekend away from coming back into session. There are plenty of big ideas for helping the economy being thrown around, but none of them appear to be on next week’s schedule.

On Monday, the Senate will handle the nomination of Jane Stranch (TN) to be an appellate judge on the Sixth Circuit. The confirmation vote will be held at 17:30 EDT. It’s good to see the Senate move another judicial nomination, but there are still way too many vacancies that need filling—and neither the Senate nor President Obama have been moving that urgently on doing so.

On Tuesday, starting at 11:00, the Senate starts a bunch of cloture votes relative to H.R. 5297, the Small Business Jobs bill. Senator George Voinovich (R)(OH) announced that he’ll support cloture, so the bill now has the 60 votes it needs to get through the Republican blockade and go through. Look for that to happen late next week.

Meanwhile, the House is looking at a Tuesday to Thursday week. A full list of the “suspension” bills that will likely sail through without controversy can be found on the Majority Leader’s website. The only bill scheduled for full debate in the House this week is H.R. 4785, the Rural Energy Star bill. (I haven’t been following this bill, so I can’t say much about it other than it’ll be considered on Thursday.)

Notably absent from any of this are any bills relating to the tax cuts that both President Obama and his Republican opponents have been discussing. In fact, there are rumors circulating that the House may recess as early as 1 October for the campaign season. Given that there’s no way that anything as contentious as these tax cuts is getting through Congress by then, we’re looking at a lame–duck session before they can be dealt with. Another issue that the lame–duck session will have to consider is the appropriations process—with only 2 of 12 appropriations bills that have even passed the House, I’m guessing we’re going to be looking at a big nasty omnibus, assuming the issue of government spending doesn’t just get punted to the next Congress. Finally, the lame–duck session gets to deal with whatever the Deficit Commission spits out. Joy.

To add even more fun to the end of this Congressional session, generally Senators that are elected to fill out the terms of Senators who have died or resigned take office immediately, replacing the appointed Senator that filled the seat prior to their election. This year, that applies to the Delaware, Illinois, New York, and West Virginia seats, and may also apply to the Colorado seat. So Democrats could be down to a 55–45 majority, in a worst–case scenario (there’s no way Gillibrand loses) as soon as 3 November. Can you say “NO CLOTURE FOR YOU?”

7 September 2010

Senate Race Ratings

Goobergunch @ 01:33 CT
Posted in: Dynamic Race Ratings, Election 2010
Tags:

Well, it’s Labor Day and as such time for the launch of the Senate 2010 edition of the GPR Dynamic Race Ratings. Unsurprisingly, it’s not good for Democrats. In the graphic below, races are categorized in rough order of competitiveness. The white line indicates what I believe to be the most likely scenario at the end of Election Night, while the light blue and red lines surround races that really could go either way. Meanwhile, the races outside the dark red and blue lines are safe bets for the Republican and Democratic Parties, respectively.

GPR Dynamic Race Ratings - Senate Election, 2010

Analysis below the fold….

(more…)

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