Goobergunch Political Report

12 November 2012

Late Projections, Part 1

Goobergunch @ 13:25 PT
Posted in: Election 2012

From Arizona’s 9th Congressional District:

Tempe, AZ
DEM
Hold
Krysten Sinema (DEM) 48.2%
100,486
Vernon Parker (GOP) 45.4%
94,697
100% reporting

Sinema will be the first openly bisexual member of Congress.

6 November 2012

General Election 2012

Goobergunch @ 15:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012, GPR Live

2012 POTUS Projection

2012 Senate Projection

2012 House Projection

UPDATE [2:43 PST]: Calling it a night. There are one Senate seat (MT) and 11 House seats (AZ-1, AZ-2, AZ-9, CA-7, CA-26, CA-33, CA-41, CA-47, CA-52, MI-1, NC-7) that are still too close to call. If the current leaders in all of those races end up winning, Democrats will have gained 2 seats in the Senate and 6 seats in the House.

5 November 2012

Early Returns

Goobergunch @ 21:07 PT
Posted in: Election 2012

Courtesy of Dixville Notch and Hart’s Location…

New Hampshire (4 EV)
Still
Voting
President
Barack Obama (DEM)
65.1%
28
Mitt Romney (GOP) 32.6%
14
1% reporting

[NH-1] Manchester
Still
Voting
Carol Shea-Porter (DEM) 69.7%
23
Representative
Frank Guinta (GOP)
27.3%
9
1% reporting

[NH-2] Nashua and Concord
Still
Voting
Representative
Charles Bass (GOP)
60.0%
6
Ann McLane Kuster (DEM) 30.0%
3
1% reporting

Governor of New Hampshire
Still
Voting
Maggie Hassan (DEM) 58.1%
25
Ovide Lamontagne (GOP) 37.2%
16
1% reporting

2 November 2012

Restating the Projection Policy

Goobergunch @ 15:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012, Meta

It’s time for the biennial restatement of the site’s official Election Projection policy, which is printed in full over the fold.

This year, the runoff clause makes things a little weird. Usually, I wouldn’t project a single House race before 6 PM Eastern Time on Election Day. However, the new California top-two voting system means that there are seven House seats for which partisan control is already decided. Both remaining eligible candidates in those House seats belong to the same party, and votes for any other candidates—write-ins included—will simply be ignored.

Therefore, victory is guaranteed for a certain party in the following races:

  • CA-08 (Death Valley): GOP Hold
  • CA-15 (Heyward and Pleasanton): DEM Hold
  • CA-30 (San Fernando Valley, West): DEM Hold
  • CA-31 (San Bernadino): GOP Hold
  • CA-35 (Ontario and Pomona): DEM Hold
  • CA-40 (Los Angeles, Central): DEM Hold
  • CA-43 (Inglewood): DEM Hold

Or in graphical form:

113th House Projection :: DEM 5, GOP 2

Of course, I won’t have an actual winner in any of these races until Election Night, so check back then!

(more…)

5 September 2012

Roll Call of the States: DNC 2012

Goobergunch @ 22:29 PT
Posted in: Election 2012, GPR Live
Tags:

The name of President Barack Obama, of Illinois, was placed in nomination by Bill Clinton of New York and seconded viva voce.

The roll call of the states for the Democratic nomination for President proceeded as follows:

Delegation Obama
Alabama 69
Alaska 24
American Samoa 10
Arizona 77
Arkansas 55
California 609
Colorado 82
Connecticut 88
Delaware 33
Democrats Abroad 18½
District of Columbia 45
Florida 296
Georgia 121
Guam 12
Hawaii 35
Idaho 31
Illinois 196
Indiana 101
Iowa 62
Kansas 51
Kentucky 72
Louisiana 65
Maine 35
Maryland 124
Massachusetts 128
Michigan 203
Minnesota 107
Mississippi yields
Ohio 188
Mississippi 45
Missouri 99
Montana 30
Nebraska 43
New Hampshire 35
Nevada 43
New Jersey 172
New Mexico 48
New York 384
North Carolina 152
North Dakota 25
Oklahoma 49
Oregon 84
Pennsylvania 242
Puerto Rico 66
Rhode Island 35
South Carolina 62
South Dakota 29
Tennessee 90
Texas 282
Utah 32
Vermont 27
Virgin Islands 12
Virginia 118
Washington 114
West Virginia 44
Wisconsin 103
Wyoming 22
Totals 5415½
Obama
2776 delegate votes needed to nominate

Ohio put Obama over the top.

By voice vote, the nomination of Barack Obama was then made unanimous.

28 August 2012

Roll Call of the States: RNC 2012

Goobergunch @ 16:06 PT
Posted in: Election 2012, GPR Live
Tags:

The name of W. Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts, was placed in nomination by John Sununu of New Hampshire, with seconding speeches by Barbara Comstock of Virginia and Ron Kaufman of Massachusetts.

The roll call of the states for the Republican nomination for President (as announced by the state delegations) proceeded as follows:

Delegation Romney Paul Santorum Bachmann Huntsman Roemer
Alabama 50
Alaska 18 9
American Samoa 9
Arizona 26 3
Arkansas 36
California 172
Colorado 28
Connecticut 28
Delaware 17
District of Columbia 19
Florida 50
Georgia 72 3
Guam 9
Hawaii 17 3
Idaho 32
Illinois 69
Indiana 46
Iowa 6 22
Kansas 39 1
Kentucky 45
Louisiana 32 12 2
Maine 14 10
Maryland 37
Massachusetts 41
Michigan 24 4
Minnesota 6 33 1
Mississippi 40
Missouri 45 4 3
Montana 26
Nebraska 33
Nevada 5 17
New Hampshire 9 3
New Jersey 50
New Mexico 23
New York 95
North Carolina 48 7
North Dakota 23 5
Northern Marianas 9
Ohio 66
Oklahoma 34 6
Oregon 23 4 1
Pennsylvania 67 5
Puerto Rico 23
Rhode Island 15 4
South Carolina 24 1
South Dakota 28
Tennessee 58
Texas 130 20 1 1 1 1
Utah 40
Vermont 13 4
Virginia 46 3
Virgin Islands 8 1
Washington 38 5
West Virginia 31
Wisconsin 41 1
Wyoming 28 1
Totals 2061 190 9 1 1 1
Romney Paul Santorum Bachmann Huntsman Roemer
1144 delegate votes needed to nominate

None of the non-Romney votes were acknowledged by the Convention Secretary or the Chairman.

New Jersey put Romney over the top, with 1150 delegate votes.

Subsequently, the name of Paul Ryan, a Congressman from Wisconsin, was placed in nomination for Vice President by Steve King of Wisconsin, and then, on motion of Joanna Cruz of Pennsylvania, he was nominated by acclamation.

10 April 2012

Game Over

Goobergunch @ 14:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012
Tags:

Rick Santorum has finally given in to the inevitable:

Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum will announce he will suspend his campaign on Tuesday at an event in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, a senior adviser to the campaign tells CNN.

And with that, I’m suspending coverage of the Republican nomination race until the convention. While Mitt Romney is still 530 delegates short of the nomination, neither Santorum nor Newt Gingrich are in any position to stop Romney from steamrolling over the remaining states and win on the first ballot. The tally at this time:

2012 Republican National Convention
(1144 delegates needed to nominate)
State-by-State Allocation

Gingrich Paul Romney Santorum Unallocated
Bound 132 25 451 167 939
Unbound 4 128 43 277
Automatic 2 1 35 2 80
Total 134 30 614 212 1296

(Turns out the West Virginia party chair from yesterday announced his resignation last week, so Romney gets rolled back to 614.)

Most importantly, the nomination battle lasted until the start of baseball season. Go Giants!

9 April 2012

Romney Delegate No. 615

Goobergunch @ 23:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012
Tags:

Mitt Romney already had two endorsements from West Virginia RNC members. Here’s the third:

Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who is considered one of the front runners in the 2012 Republican presidential primary, is the “right person” for the job, West Virginia Republican Party Chairman Mike Stuart said April 9.

3 April 2012

The 2012 Wisconsin, Maryland, and D.C. Primaries

Goobergunch @ 19:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012, GPR Live
Tags:

It’s pretty obvious that Mitt Romney’s going to be the Republican Party’s nominee for President in 2012. (Like I’ve been saying for months.) But since there are still other candidates in the race, and Romney still has a ways to go to get to 1144 delegates, the delegate counting presses on.

At 8:00 Central Time, polls close in Wisconsin, which allocates its 42 delegates tonight. The allocation is easy—18 delegates to the statewide winner, plus 3 delegates for each Congressional district won, as follows:

WI-R Romney Santorum Unallocated
CD 1 3
CD 2 3
CD 3 3
CD 4 3
CD 5 3
CD 6 3
CD 7 3
CD 8 3
At Large 18
Total 33 9
Last updated 0:39 Central Daylight Time

I put Wisconsin first, out of poll-closing-time order, because it’s really the only state where Santorum has a chance of doing decently. Polls in both Maryland and the District of Columbia are now closed. The 16 pledged delegates from the District of Columbia are allocated to the winner of tonight’s primary. That winner is Mitt Romney. Maryland’s 37 delegates are allocated similarly to Wisconsin’s, except the statewide winner only gets 13 at-large delegates.

MD-R Romney Santorum Unallocated
CD 1 3
CD 2 3
CD 3 3
CD 4 3
CD 5 3
CD 6 3
CD 7 3
CD 8 3
At Large 13
Total 37
Last updated 23:07 Eastern Daylight Time

2 April 2012

North Dakota Brokering

Goobergunch @ 17:00 PT
Posted in: Election 2012
Tags:

So the North Dakota delegation to the Republican National Committee was supposed to be informally allocated based on the results of the Super Tuesday caucuses, won by Rick Santorum. Well, the actual delegates were selected this weekend at the state convention, and….

BISMARCK, N.D. (AP) — Supporters of Republican presidential candidates Ron Paul and Rick Santorum protested the North Dakota GOP’s process for choosing national convention delegates on Saturday, with a former state party chairman calling it a “railroad job.”

The two candidates’ backers claimed a suggested slate of 25 national convention delegates was stacked with fans of Mitt Romney, who finished behind Paul and Santorum during North Dakota’s March 6 presidential preference caucuses.

Numerically?

Contrast with the caucus-based projection: Santorum 11, Paul 8, Romney 7, Gingrich 2. Romney gains 13 delegates.

 

In other delegate news, the Minnesota 7th Congressional District convention was held this weekend, and selects its three delegates to the national convention:

As I, unlike the AP, didn’t project any delegates based on the earlier Minnesota caucus results, all three of these are new delegates in my count.

The remaining Congressional district delegates will be selected over the next three weeks.

Older Posts »

Powered by WordPress