From Arizona’s 9th Congressional District:
| Tempe, AZ | ||
|---|---|---|
| DEM Hold |
Krysten Sinema (DEM) | 48.2% 100,486 |
| Vernon Parker (GOP) | 45.4% 94,697 |
|
| 100% reporting | ||
Sinema will be the first openly bisexual member of Congress.
12 November 2012
Late Projections, Part 1
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6 November 2012
General Election 2012
UPDATE [2:43 PST]: Calling it a night. There are one Senate seat (MT) and 11 House seats (AZ-1, AZ-2, AZ-9, CA-7, CA-26, CA-33, CA-41, CA-47, CA-52, MI-1, NC-7) that are still too close to call. If the current leaders in all of those races end up winning, Democrats will have gained 2 seats in the Senate and 6 seats in the House.
5 November 2012
Early Returns
Courtesy of Dixville Notch and Hart’s Location…
| New Hampshire (4 EV) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Still Voting |
President Barack Obama (DEM) |
65.1% 28 |
| Mitt Romney (GOP) | 32.6% 14 |
|
| 1% reporting | ||
| [NH-1] Manchester | ||
|---|---|---|
| Still Voting |
Carol Shea-Porter (DEM) | 69.7% 23 |
| Representative Frank Guinta (GOP) |
27.3% 9 |
|
| 1% reporting | ||
| [NH-2] Nashua and Concord | ||
|---|---|---|
| Still Voting |
Representative Charles Bass (GOP) |
60.0% 6 |
| Ann McLane Kuster (DEM) | 30.0% 3 |
|
| 1% reporting | ||
| Governor of New Hampshire | ||
|---|---|---|
| Still Voting |
Maggie Hassan (DEM) | 58.1% 25 |
| Ovide Lamontagne (GOP) | 37.2% 16 |
|
| 1% reporting | ||
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2 November 2012
Restating the Projection Policy
It’s time for the biennial restatement of the site’s official Election Projection policy, which is printed in full over the fold.
This year, the runoff clause makes things a little weird. Usually, I wouldn’t project a single House race before 6 PM Eastern Time on Election Day. However, the new California top-two voting system means that there are seven House seats for which partisan control is already decided. Both remaining eligible candidates in those House seats belong to the same party, and votes for any other candidates—write-ins included—will simply be ignored.
Therefore, victory is guaranteed for a certain party in the following races:
- CA-08 (Death Valley): GOP Hold
- CA-15 (Heyward and Pleasanton): DEM Hold
- CA-30 (San Fernando Valley, West): DEM Hold
- CA-31 (San Bernadino): GOP Hold
- CA-35 (Ontario and Pomona): DEM Hold
- CA-40 (Los Angeles, Central): DEM Hold
- CA-43 (Inglewood): DEM Hold
Or in graphical form:
Of course, I won’t have an actual winner in any of these races until Election Night, so check back then!
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5 September 2012
Roll Call of the States: DNC 2012
The name of President Barack Obama, of Illinois, was placed in nomination by Bill Clinton of New York and seconded viva voce.
The roll call of the states for the Democratic nomination for President proceeded as follows:
| Delegation | Obama |
|---|---|
| Alabama | 69 |
| Alaska | 24 |
| American Samoa | 10 |
| Arizona | 77 |
| Arkansas | 55 |
| California | 609 |
| Colorado | 82 |
| Connecticut | 88 |
| Delaware | 33 |
| Democrats Abroad | 18½ |
| District of Columbia | 45 |
| Florida | 296 |
| Georgia | 121 |
| Guam | 12 |
| Hawaii | 35 |
| Idaho | 31 |
| Illinois | 196 |
| Indiana | 101 |
| Iowa | 62 |
| Kansas | 51 |
| Kentucky | 72 |
| Louisiana | 65 |
| Maine | 35 |
| Maryland | 124 |
| Massachusetts | 128 |
| Michigan | 203 |
| Minnesota | 107 |
| Mississippi | yields |
| Ohio | 188 |
| Mississippi | 45 |
| Missouri | 99 |
| Montana | 30 |
| Nebraska | 43 |
| New Hampshire | 35 |
| Nevada | 43 |
| New Jersey | 172 |
| New Mexico | 48 |
| New York | 384 |
| North Carolina | 152 |
| North Dakota | 25 |
| Oklahoma | 49 |
| Oregon | 84 |
| Pennsylvania | 242 |
| Puerto Rico | 66 |
| Rhode Island | 35 |
| South Carolina | 62 |
| South Dakota | 29 |
| Tennessee | 90 |
| Texas | 282 |
| Utah | 32 |
| Vermont | 27 |
| Virgin Islands | 12 |
| Virginia | 118 |
| Washington | 114 |
| West Virginia | 44 |
| Wisconsin | 103 |
| Wyoming | 22 |
| Totals | 5415½ |
| Obama | |
| 2776 delegate votes needed to nominate | |
Ohio put Obama over the top.
By voice vote, the nomination of Barack Obama was then made unanimous.
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28 August 2012
Roll Call of the States: RNC 2012
The name of W. Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts, was placed in nomination by John Sununu of New Hampshire, with seconding speeches by Barbara Comstock of Virginia and Ron Kaufman of Massachusetts.
The roll call of the states for the Republican nomination for President (as announced by the state delegations) proceeded as follows:
| Delegation | Romney | Paul | Santorum | Bachmann | Huntsman | Roemer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 50 | |||||
| Alaska | 18 | 9 | ||||
| American Samoa | 9 | |||||
| Arizona | 26 | 3 | ||||
| Arkansas | 36 | |||||
| California | 172 | |||||
| Colorado | 28 | |||||
| Connecticut | 28 | |||||
| Delaware | 17 | |||||
| District of Columbia | 19 | |||||
| Florida | 50 | |||||
| Georgia | 72 | 3 | ||||
| Guam | 9 | |||||
| Hawaii | 17 | 3 | ||||
| Idaho | 32 | |||||
| Illinois | 69 | |||||
| Indiana | 46 | |||||
| Iowa | 6 | 22 | ||||
| Kansas | 39 | 1 | ||||
| Kentucky | 45 | |||||
| Louisiana | 32 | 12 | 2 | |||
| Maine | 14 | 10 | ||||
| Maryland | 37 | |||||
| Massachusetts | 41 | |||||
| Michigan | 24 | 4 | ||||
| Minnesota | 6 | 33 | 1 | |||
| Mississippi | 40 | |||||
| Missouri | 45 | 4 | 3 | |||
| Montana | 26 | |||||
| Nebraska | 33 | |||||
| Nevada | 5 | 17 | ||||
| New Hampshire | 9 | 3 | ||||
| New Jersey | 50 | |||||
| New Mexico | 23 | |||||
| New York | 95 | |||||
| North Carolina | 48 | 7 | ||||
| North Dakota | 23 | 5 | ||||
| Northern Marianas | 9 | |||||
| Ohio | 66 | |||||
| Oklahoma | 34 | 6 | ||||
| Oregon | 23 | 4 | 1 | |||
| Pennsylvania | 67 | 5 | ||||
| Puerto Rico | 23 | |||||
| Rhode Island | 15 | 4 | ||||
| South Carolina | 24 | 1 | ||||
| South Dakota | 28 | |||||
| Tennessee | 58 | |||||
| Texas | 130 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Utah | 40 | |||||
| Vermont | 13 | 4 | ||||
| Virginia | 46 | 3 | ||||
| Virgin Islands | 8 | 1 | ||||
| Washington | 38 | 5 | ||||
| West Virginia | 31 | |||||
| Wisconsin | 41 | 1 | ||||
| Wyoming | 28 | 1 | ||||
| Totals | 2061 | 190 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Romney | Paul | Santorum | Bachmann | Huntsman | Roemer | |
| 1144 delegate votes needed to nominate | ||||||
None of the non-Romney votes were acknowledged by the Convention Secretary or the Chairman.
New Jersey put Romney over the top, with 1150 delegate votes.
Subsequently, the name of Paul Ryan, a Congressman from Wisconsin, was placed in nomination for Vice President by Steve King of Wisconsin, and then, on motion of Joanna Cruz of Pennsylvania, he was nominated by acclamation.
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10 April 2012
Game Over
Rick Santorum has finally given in to the inevitable:
Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum will announce he will suspend his campaign on Tuesday at an event in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, a senior adviser to the campaign tells CNN.
And with that, I’m suspending coverage of the Republican nomination race until the convention. While Mitt Romney is still 530 delegates short of the nomination, neither Santorum nor Newt Gingrich are in any position to stop Romney from steamrolling over the remaining states and win on the first ballot. The tally at this time:
(1144 delegates needed to nominate)
State-by-State Allocation
| Gingrich | Paul | Romney | Santorum | Unallocated | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | 132 | 25 | 451 | 167 | 939 |
| Unbound | 4 | 128 | 43 | 277 | |
| Automatic | 2 | 1 | 35 | 2 | 80 |
| Total | 134 | 30 | 614 | 212 | 1296 |
(Turns out the West Virginia party chair from yesterday announced his resignation last week, so Romney gets rolled back to 614.)
Most importantly, the nomination battle lasted until the start of baseball season. Go Giants!
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9 April 2012
Romney Delegate No. 615
Mitt Romney already had two endorsements from West Virginia RNC members. Here’s the third:
Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who is considered one of the front runners in the 2012 Republican presidential primary, is the “right person” for the job, West Virginia Republican Party Chairman Mike Stuart said April 9.
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3 April 2012
The 2012 Wisconsin, Maryland, and D.C. Primaries
It’s pretty obvious that Mitt Romney’s going to be the Republican Party’s nominee for President in 2012. (Like I’ve been saying for months.) But since there are still other candidates in the race, and Romney still has a ways to go to get to 1144 delegates, the delegate counting presses on.
At 8:00 Central Time, polls close in Wisconsin, which allocates its 42 delegates tonight. The allocation is easy—18 delegates to the statewide winner, plus 3 delegates for each Congressional district won, as follows:
| WI-R | Romney | Santorum | Unallocated | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD 1 | 3 | ||||||
| CD 2 | 3 | ||||||
| CD 3 | 3 | ||||||
| CD 4 | 3 | ||||||
| CD 5 | 3 | ||||||
| CD 6 | 3 | ||||||
| CD 7 | 3 | ||||||
| CD 8 | 3 | ||||||
| At Large | 18 | ||||||
| Total | 33 | 9 | |||||
| Last updated 0:39 Central Daylight Time | |||||||
I put Wisconsin first, out of poll-closing-time order, because it’s really the only state where Santorum has a chance of doing decently. Polls in both Maryland and the District of Columbia are now closed. The 16 pledged delegates from the District of Columbia are allocated to the winner of tonight’s primary. That winner is Mitt Romney. Maryland’s 37 delegates are allocated similarly to Wisconsin’s, except the statewide winner only gets 13 at-large delegates.
| MD-R | Romney | Santorum | Unallocated | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD 1 | 3 | ||||||
| CD 2 | 3 | ||||||
| CD 3 | 3 | ||||||
| CD 4 | 3 | ||||||
| CD 5 | 3 | ||||||
| CD 6 | 3 | ||||||
| CD 7 | 3 | ||||||
| CD 8 | 3 | ||||||
| At Large | 13 | ||||||
| Total | 37 | ||||||
| Last updated 23:07 Eastern Daylight Time | |||||||
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2 April 2012
North Dakota Brokering
So the North Dakota delegation to the Republican National Committee was supposed to be informally allocated based on the results of the Super Tuesday caucuses, won by Rick Santorum. Well, the actual delegates were selected this weekend at the state convention, and….
BISMARCK, N.D. (AP) — Supporters of Republican presidential candidates Ron Paul and Rick Santorum protested the North Dakota GOP’s process for choosing national convention delegates on Saturday, with a former state party chairman calling it a “railroad job.”
The two candidates’ backers claimed a suggested slate of 25 national convention delegates was stacked with fans of Mitt Romney, who finished behind Paul and Santorum during North Dakota’s March 6 presidential preference caucuses.
Numerically?
#NDGOP national delegate slate gives Paul 2, Santorum 6, Romney 20.Delegates voting now. Actual results coming.
— Luke Hellier (@lukehellier) March 31, 2012
Contrast with the caucus-based projection: Santorum 11, Paul 8, Romney 7, Gingrich 2. Romney gains 13 delegates.
In other delegate news, the Minnesota 7th Congressional District convention was held this weekend, and selects its three delegates to the national convention:
@FHQ Santorum also lost a “projected” delegate to Ron Paul in the MN-07 CD Convention. Santorum ended up with 2 Delegates, Paul 1. #mngop
— Minnesota Mike (@MinnesotaMike1) April 1, 2012
As I, unlike the AP, didn’t project any delegates based on the earlier Minnesota caucus results, all three of these are new delegates in my count.
The remaining Congressional district delegates will be selected over the next three weeks.
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